@crampell@JStein_WaPo This is a hugely important question. And one where the experience of other countries has been too often glossed over, I think. Short (maybe) thread:
@crampell@JStein_WaPo Other countries with fully-integrated tax/benefit systems that the US might be envious of (UK, Aus, NZ) have nevertheless often still caused massive hardship (& political firestorm) over creating reconciliation debts for low-income people.
@crampell@JStein_WaPo Here are some examples. Some of this is income reconciliation, some of it family changes, some of it implementation glitches. The basic point is that you want to do everything possible to avoid creating this type of hardship for families. Safe harbors should be very robust.
@crampell@JStein_WaPo Australia, 2015. 350k families overpaid family benefits, coupled with aggressive debt collection tactics (remember the US now has private debt collection for IRS debts....) smh.com.au/politics/feder…
@crampell@JStein_WaPo New Zealand, 2008: interest charges on overpaid "Working for Families" tax credits. Mostly due to income changes -- not an issue for CTC advance, where the main issue will be family changes -- but shows hardship of reconciliation you want to avoid. stuff.co.nz/national/71347…
@crampell@JStein_WaPo Here's an NZ example; with the CTC advance the issue would not be an income change but a child changing residence -- and without a robust safe harbor, the amounts paid back would be far larger.
@crampell@JStein_WaPo UK, 2014. "Pursuit of tax credit overpayments turns nasty as debt collectors hound the poorest"
In this UK case issue = implementation glitches.
But here, need to avoid recipe of potentially large reconciliation debts + private debt collection
@crampell@JStein_WaPo These countries made policy choices, & the resulting hardship for families & political firestorm are a lesson for US lawmakers now.
A very robust safe harbor to protect families from having to pay back large CTC amounts is a *must have* when advancing credits.
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I’ve not done one of these for a while! After ~10 years @CenterOnBudget with some of the best colleagues in the world, I’ve started @nyulaw as executive director of a new initiative founded w/ the incredible @lilybatch: The Tax Law Center @nyulaw.
Here’s more about what we’re seeking to build in collaboration with a terrific tax community: law.nyu.edu/centers/tax-la…
I can’t thank @CenterOnBudget@GreensteinCBPP@ParrottCBPP@ChuckCBPP & team enough for supporting us to explore this. We’re looking forward to continuing to collaborate w/ @CenterOnBudget, as well as the many terrific tax folks I’ve been privileged to meet while working there.
Thread. Per @JStein_WaPo@byHeatherLong, Trump Administration economists think lawmakers have "a little bit of luxury to wait and see" before doing more to address the COVID-19 human & economic crisis.
The ~1 in 5 mothers of young children who say their children aren't eating enough -- & the very many other families facing sharply increased food insecurity.
The tens of millions of people who have lost a job. Including those among the 28% of jobs lost in the lowest-paid industries, & people in communities locked out of full economic opportunity even at the best of times:
BIG THREAD: the fiscal policy response to the economic crisis caused by COVID-19 should match the extraordinary human hardship & economic need – not arbitrary dollar comparisons to stimulus in prior recessions, the level of debt, or even the debt ratio. 1/
EXTRAORDINARY NEED. The pace of economic decline suggests this recession will be especially deep -- deeper than the 2007-09 Great Recession.
The U.S has never seen anything near the pace of job losses in this chart. (Between the start of the Great Recession & when total employment hit bottom, the number of people with a job fell by 8.3 million.)
Making millions of people who otherwise don't need to file a tax return have to file one to get a stimulus payment is a mistake that lawmakers have made before. It's one that should be avoided now, in the middle of a pandemic. 1/
Here's @Claudia_Sahm on the 2008 stimulus payment. Lawmakers required some 20 million seniors veterans, & others to file a tax return to get it. 17 percent didn't ever file for the payment -- & that wasn't in a pandemic. hamiltonproject.org/assets/files/S…
@WaysMeansCmte Whose audit rates fell most? Corporate giants & wealthy filers who overwhelmingly own businesses.
They've got the most complex finances (often set up that way to avoid tax in the first place!) so require experienced IRS staff for audits.
But IRS has hemorrhaged those staff.
@WaysMeansCmte Audit rates on working families who claim the Earned Income Tax Credit for working families are down too -- but only a little. Those audits are easier and cheaper for the IRS, so are hurt less by the loss of expert IRS staff.