How a glad-handing, graduation-speaking, fund-raising, suburb-adoring establishment tactician is embracing the wealth-transferring, rent-canceling, Green New Deal-endorsing, incumbent-toppling wing of his party nytimes.com/2021/02/07/us/…
Schumer is using his work in DC with top progressive leaders as political armor back home, making the case to activists and young electeds that their friends are his friends nytimes.com/2021/02/07/us/…
Schumer has significant support from NY liberals who see the value of having a New Yorker atop the Senate
But expectations for what he can deliver are correspondingly higher...
As @yuhline put it: “Every single thing I asked for, I’m going to ask for five thousand times harder”
Backdrop for all this is, of course, NY’s emergence as one of the primary-challengingest blue states in the country
@DavidCarlucci says Schumer looks solid but: “Any politician that’s part of the old guard has to be very concerned about a potential primary”
Biggest question is whether @AOC runs, and there’s no sign she has decided yet. But even a less-prominent opponent could be a painful distraction for Schumer as he leads a 50/50 Senate
Possibly helping Chuck: NY left is far more focused on assembling a challenge to @andrewcuomo
many people have played down most or all of the factors below, for different reasons, in favor of a narrative that cast Trump as a grossly underestimated tribune of a powerful new coalition. much electoral evidence from 2017-2019 has cut against that but the myth has persisted.
now, I think a lot of us did underestimate Trump’s ability to exploit a highly specific set of conditions in 2016. but as @jbouie wrote, he needed all of them in order to win by the narrowest of margins. and he has made no concerted effort since 2016 to expand his coalition.
the last president to win the electoral college but not the popular vote, George W. Bush, recognized that was a weakness and not a superpower, and spent 4 years trying to improve his standing with women, seniors, Hispanic voters and more. Trump has done none of that.
This is the third poll this week to show Trump and Biden effectively tied in Georgia
AJC had 47-47, Monmouth had 47-46, we have 45-45
Georgia has as many EVs as Mich & more than Wisc, which much of the political world has spent 4 years treating as center of the universe
One takeaway from our polling this month: the most competitive region of the country in the presidential race is not the Upper Midwest, where Biden is ahead, but the tied-up South Atlantic swing states – Georgia and North Carolina
Ominous for GOP, if Trump does not recover, is lack of voter interest in a checks-and-balances message. Most voters in all 3 states say best for the WH and Senate to be controlled by same party.
Maine looking like exhibit A in limitations of a ticket-splitting strategy ...
this is both a big move in the 2020 spending picture & another data point in Bloomberg's pullback from commitments during the primary. $100 million is massive for a 1-state program. it's also not close to the mother-of-all-Dem super PACs his aides promised
the context for FL move: @jmartNYT@maggieNYT & I reported last weekend that multiple pro-Biden groups had repeatedly pitched Bloomberg on spending heavily there as a knockout blow against Trump – only to get weeks of shrugging responses nytimes.com/2020/09/06/us/…
Dems will be grateful for Bloomberg's spending, as they always are, but it's hard to overstate the level of exasperation among many Dems with Bloomberg himself and with advisers who made promises during the primary that they simply have not kept
In our Nevada polling, voters said by a 9-point margin that the government's priority should be to limit covid spread over reopening the economy, and only 36& of NV voters said the state was reopening too slowly
There is no evidence in our poll to suggest most Nevadans are pining to reopen faster. Asked how they felt about the pace of reopening, 3 in 5 said the current pace was about right (46%) or too fast (14%).
Yes, 62% of Rs said it was too slow, but those are already Trump voters.
People have been predicting from the outset that we would soon see a broad voter revolt against public-health restrictions. Six months in, we are still just not seeing that.
Trump's message on crime and riots has sunk in. Just as many voters call that the main issue of the election as say it's the coronavirus. "Defund" attacks on Biden have registered widely.
Trump's fundamental problems have not eased: Most voters dislike him. Most voters think he has mismanaged the coronavirus. He is deeply unpopular with women, moderates, college educated whites – groups that otherwise might respond to law-and-order appeals. nytimes.com/2020/09/12/us/…