A short thread exploring CV19 in the context of age-standardised mortality rate.
The first graphic compares 3 different mortality metrics:- Total Deaths, Deaths Per 100K and Age Standardised Mortality Rate (ASMR). Have added lines simulating a doubling of CV19 deaths.
The first graphic compares 3 different mortality metrics:- Total Deaths, Deaths Per 100K and Age Standardised Mortality Rate (ASMR). Have added lines simulating a doubling of CV19 deaths.
Note that the relative increase in the ASMR, due to CV19, is far lower than the other two metrics. This is due to a combination of three factors...
1. The ASMR calculation has a lower weighting for deaths in the 64+ age groups. The higher the age group the lower the weighting.
1. The ASMR calculation has a lower weighting for deaths in the 64+ age groups. The higher the age group the lower the weighting.
2. The higher the age group, the higher the death rate due to CV19
3. Between 2010 and 2019 there has been a 14% increase in the proportion of the population that are over 64..
It could be argued that having a higher proportion of the population susceptible to CV19, than we did say 10 years ago, has resulted in a higher number of overall deaths and deaths per 100K.
Conversely, because ASMR takes into account the changes of population age profile, the relative increase in this metric, as a result of CV19 deaths, is not as significant.....
...when comparing with previous years, particularly those prior to 2010.
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