Thread by @tconnellyRTE

Here's an update on the Northern Ireland Protocol...again:

There's a growing backlash among member states against the @michaelgove letter of last week assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

2/ National capitals are waking up to the Protocol flare up, having believed it had all been sorted out in a meeting between Gove and @MarosSefcovic last December. One diplomat said the letter was "outrageous", another said member states were "incandescent"

3/ Yes, they knew the European Commission had screwed up over the Article 16 affair on Jan 29. However, acc to the diplomat, "the British are capitalising on the Commission's mistake - people thought that that was probably inevitable...

4/ "but the letter and its demands were seen as completely over the top."

While member states were prepared to be pragmatic and look at reasonable adjustments to the protocol, the letter has soured the mood considerably

5/ "There probably was a growing willingness to look at the situation in a pragmatic way," says one diplomat, "but the letter has now got people's backs up. People are now more focused on what the British haven't done in terms of their own commitments under the Protocol..."

6/ To make matters worse, it appears that member states were unhappy at the Gove-Sefcovic deal on December 7, in that it was presented to capitals as something they should rubber stamp

7/ Now, acc to one senior diplomat, member states are insisting that the Commission gets a mandate from national capitals before they enter discussions with London on any fresh facilitations.

8/ Sources say the EU will probably grant an extension to the three- and six-month grace periods (for Export Health Cert and sausage-ban exemptions respectively), but not much beyond that

9/ Another diplomat says larger member states, preoccupied with vaccine rollouts, are waking up to a grave situation regarding the Protocol. They believe the UK is using the Article 16 affair to provide cover for the poor preparedness of both the UK govt and GB traders into NI

10/ Ireland is in a difficult position, instinctively wanting maximum pragmatism when it comes to the Protocol, but not wanting to alienate member states who are concerned at the integrity of the single market

11/ “There’s a concern that the Commission’s interests, those of the UK and those of Ireland might be fairly aligned in this case,” says one diplomat, “and that that would lead to compromises which might then be very difficult to swallow for member states.”

12/ So, not for the first time, the irony is that the Brexit hardliners in London, who have so excoriated the Commission over Article 16, may find that it is a better friend that national capitals, who will call the shots on the Protocol

13/ And on Article 16, Irish officials will meet senior Commission figures tomorrow to start to develop an early warning system for any new EU legislation which might have an unforeseen consequence due to the hybrid status of NI, being in two internal mkts at the same time

14/ The idea is that new proposals are scanned for any possibly implication for Northern Ireland, and that @McGuinnessEU and her cabinet will be alerted

15/ One off-the-top-of-the-head example could be the carbon border adjustment tax, potentially part of the EU's Green Deal. Cd that mean a tariff on exports GB-NI which were carbon intensive in the production phase?

16/ The concern is Dublin is to prevent a repeat of the Article 16 issue. One source says: How could this have happened, + how could something with such serious implications be flipped into a piece of implementing legislation late on a Friday afternoon, with nobody shouting stop