'Why central bankers should read economic history'. >a short essay on the potential contributions of economic history to monetary policy-making. 1/5 booksandideas.net/Why-Central-Ba…
The virtue of history is not only to improve economic models and quantitative studies, but to provide a perspective distinct from standard economic reasoning. I distinguish the "indirect" contribution of econ. history (i.e. enrich theory, enlarge empirical datasets) from ...2/5
the direct contribution of history to economic policy-making: contextualize and emphasize how the current situation is a unique product of historical trends and contingent forces. Econ. history is much more than applied econ. to the past !3/5
Although this distinction is quite obvious and well-known, I believe it is useful to organize econ. history research in central banks and think about motivations to improve historical knowledge on these institutions. I give several examples (macropru, public debt) 4/5
This text was written for this great conference at the Bank of England in December. The @BoE_Research has made tremendous effort to open its archives to researchers and provide historical ressources to historians 5/5 bankofengland.co.uk/events/2020/no…
There's also a brief section on central banks and public debt in the 1930-1970s that strongly echoes recent @DanielaGabor's " return of monetary financing" >a great example of useful historical perspective showing the uniqueness of the current situation transformative-responses.org/wp-content/upl…
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1/6 With Damien Puy, we make public our quarterly dataset of macro & financial data since 1950. It covers Real GDP (37 countries), Credit (45), Consumer Prices (48), Stock Prices (26), and Bond yields (18). We use it for our paper on global cycles. imf.org/en/Publication…
2/6 We extend considerably existing quarterly macro-financial international datasets, thanks to a systematic use of IFS paper volumes (published by @IMFNews since 1948). Most was not available online. Presented at @nberpubs thanks to G.Hale & M.Klein conference.nber.org/sched/SI20IFMDS
3/6 Key takeaways from data & the paper: 1) global synchronization has increased over time for prices (goods and assets), but not for quantities (output and credit), despite globalization 2) trade & financial openness have opposite effects on synchronization in normal times.