Flashback - me in China - 2008. China has 5% world’s land, 20% world’s population, > 15% world GDP and 70% world’s high speed rail system. Farm land with a ticket to go faster than necessary. The US has locomotives... think of two Chinas doing exactly the same thing.
Only difference is accounting. In one China if you invest $100m in a project that is only worth $20m you write the project down to $20m. In line with what other countries do. In the other China, you invest $100m in a project that’s only worth $20m and you carry it at $100m.
In accounting terms the first China will show a much lower GDP and a lower GDP growth rate than the second. We live in the second China. The GDP number they report is much higher than the GDP number of the first.
China took the blue pill - you wake up in your bed and you believe whatever you want. But you need to adjust GDP by as much as 30%. So official data says China debt to GDP ratio is 260% but if GDP is 30% less, they could be closer to 400%.

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More from @hendry_hugh

10 Feb
You want to be a macro hedge fund trader? Imagine the hypothetical. You’re taken to a psychiatric ward. There‘s a girl, sitting naked on the floor. She’s rocking. She’s not spoken to anyone for months. What do you do..?
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Repeat after me
I am I
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How d’you like them clichés???
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Ok...let's do this. I'm going to start a live cast in 2021. I'm inviting you to present your best trade idea at my investment strategy committee. I'm going to be helped and assisted by my former investment partners Tom Roderick and George Lee
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Then you got to submit your idea on the contacts page of my website hughhendry.com/contact/
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I’ve been reading and thinking again...
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OK, what's your diagnosis of my metaphysical disease?
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