Another fun TCA problem: UK seems to think EU is completing its ratification this month

Which it's not
A reminder: TCA itself only has provisional application lasting to end Feb, unless either full ratification completed, or mutual agreement to extend in Partnership Council
UK has completed its arm of ratification, while EU accepted EP needed more time to look at it all properly, before giving its formal approval

However: EP can only vote on this in plenary
The only plenary before end Feb is happening, um, now

europarl.europa.eu/plenary/en/hom…

You'll note there's no report from the various committees that need to check it over, nor time for debate or voting in plenary
ispo facto, EU isn't completing ratification within TCA period, so an extension must be asked for if the provisional application isn't to end

And UK/Gove will have known this, since EP plenary agenda's been known for some time
+ve guess is that Gove's evidence to @CommonsEU has just neglected to have this flagged up for him, so he winged it

-ve guess is he knows full well it's the case and it'll be used to try to paint EU as somehow feckless
very -ve take would be that it'll be a tool to try to press for changes on NIP

(which won't work, except in further aggravating relations)
Again, another issue that could have been managed very much on the QT with no-one minding that much, but is getting dragged up for some end

Which isn't going to help any smooth running of it all
(thanks to @EuropeanNick @jonworth for flagging this)
Another issue: UK hasn't said who will sit on PC, which means PC can't sit, so it can't decide to extend (or decide anything, actually)

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More from @Usherwood

3 Feb
Basic problem with Gove's letter to Šefčovič is not the identification of issues, but the connection of these with failure of Protocol (thus necessitating possible use of Art.16)

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

Evident in remedies proposed

1/
First four remedies are extensions of grace periods, because UK hasn't put in place necessary systems

2/
Fifth remedy also seems to be 'just give a moment to come back to you with ideas'

3/
Read 5 tweets
30 Jan
So, now we've all slept on it, a possibly less hot take

AZ/Art.16 mess highlights importance of UK being closely across EU/COM activity, because it will affect UK and there's no one permanently in place to look after UK interests

1/
UK is now a third country and so will always come after member states in political calculations.

Fortunate to have IE looking after Protocol, and Barnier to still be around, to unpick the situation last night, but might not apply to other situations

2/
Thus UK needs to maintain working links with all parts of COM to head off issues and make sure there's someone to phone if it does go wrong

3/
Read 5 tweets
29 Jan
Since COM is talking about using Art.16 of Northern Ireland Protocol to limit movement of vaccines to GB, let's look at that text a bit

trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/20…

1/
Art. 16 allows for proportionate safeguard measures in cases of difficulties 'that are liable to persist' (so not unconditional).

However, note the procedural requirement at the bottom

eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/…

2/
That Annex 7 sets out the rules for doing this

Note:
- requirement to immediately consult in the Jt Cte
- 1 month delay to start of measures, unless 'exceptional circumstances'

eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/…

3/
Read 4 tweets
25 Jan
Looking for some graphical summaries of the TCA, and the process leading up to it?

Then feel free to use the ones I've been making

bit.ly/UshGraphicFold…

1/
In the weeks since the TCA has agreed, I've covered the timeline of what comes next:



2/
A stupidly big one about links to other treaties:



3/
Read 7 tweets
21 Jan
Let's consider this for a bit, shall we?

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…

tl;dr will be: completely counterproductive move by UK

1/
UK govt argues that EU office in London shouldn't have full diplomatic status, given its "specific character"

Practically, that means no protection under Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Protection

2/
That's the UK's call, as it is for all third parties: the entire system relies on external recognition of status, so no different in that regard

However, important to keep in mind various points

3/
Read 11 tweets
14 Jan
Just to underline the key points of this: the TCA highlights the extent to which the UK remains entangled in a dense web of international commitments, post EU-membership
With several hundred references to over 110 multilateral commitments of various kinds, the UK will find that the control it was claiming to get back will be closely bound by an international system that's very different from 1973
Those commitments are mainly focused in trade (as you'd expect), but reach across the board, into health, food and human rights
Read 7 tweets

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