Thread by @mdouganlpool

Want to understand better why Johnson’s “amazing deal” hasn’t stopped systematic problems in EU-UK trade - and why these aren't just teething issues, but permanent structural problems?

Here are some key points - crucial context to help explain why EU-UK deal is so limited:

1) Trade in goods is much easier to facilitate than trade in services. EU-UK deal concentrates largely on goods, has much less to say on services – even though latter make up vast bulk of UK economy - and is especially poor where goods and services need to combine together.

2) As regards goods, to trade lawfully in the EU, any third country supplier needs to cross 2 main hurdles: their goods must enter into "free circulation"; and their goods must undergo "lawful marketing". If both hurdles are crossed, goods are treated (almost) like EU own-goods.

3) "Free circulation" = goods comply with all relevant customs restrictions, checks & formalities; + pay all appropriate customs tariffs & border fees. Even if an agreement reduces / eliminates tariffs on Good X, we still need to know Good X rightly qualifies for that benefit.

4) EU-UK deal concentrates on eliminating tariffs for qualifying goods + reducing some of burden of complying with customs checks / formalities. But it does not change fundamental nature of cross-border trade controls. Not by EU. And once temporary reprieve expires, not by UK.

5) "Lawful marketing" = goods comply with all applicable regulatory standards of national market on which they will first be placed. Includes EU rules where they exist, eg toy safety. And / or domestic rules of relevant Member State, which might well differ from elsewhere in EU.

6) However, once 3rd country goods are lawfully marked in one MS, they can then be sold across rest of EU in accordance with ordinary Single Market rules, eg presumption of right to free movement / mutual recognition in all other MSs (even if latter's local rules are different).

7) Though 3rd country goods are still not *fully* the same as EU own-goods: remain subject to certain restrictions, eg if goods require ongoing market surveillance and relevant third country authorities are not part of EU cooperation network set up to assist in protecting public

8) Coming back to EU-UK deal: latter has little to offer when it comes to requirement of "lawful marketing". HMG's point blank refusal to consider regulatory alignment with EU means there are few "special benefits" for UK goods when it comes to lawful sale within EU markets.

9) Moreover, non-tariff barriers related to "lawful marketing" are potentially far more damaging to cross-border trade than those concerning “free circulation”. Multiple production lines, increased costs, reduced competitiveness, market segmentation etc. So: wait til they kick in

10) So what about services - why more tricky? Tariffs/customs checks don’t really apply to services as such. But non-tariff barriers are often much more complex & onerous. Plus: even if you meet requirements in one MS, that doesn’t give you onward movement rights in other MSs.

11) So: UK service provider might now have to comply with 27 different sets of EU + national regulatory regimes in order to do business across EU. Not just 1, which is whole point of mutual recognition/passporting rights within Single Market, as applied also to UK pre-Brexit...

12) In addition: provision of services is often bound up with movement of goods (equipment, spare parts etc) and movement of people (visas, work permits etc). A process which is accelerating in modern economies, especially through influence of digital: we call it “servitisation”

13) Put all that together= major reason why Johnson’s deal is so paltry: for many service sectors, there is very little to facilitate cross-border activities at all; combined with limited rules on goods (above) & almost nothing on movement of persons (Brexit bigots in full swing)

14) Which explains, e.g. why musicians and production industry are so badly battered by Johnson’s deal: not only suffer market segmentation as regards their services per se; but also problems with moving equipment as "goods" + immigration restrictions on movement of personnel...

15) Tories claim: all just glitches, teething problems, will sort itself out. Some issues are. But most important ones aren’t: they are permanent feature of future EU-UK trade that businesses simply have to adapt to. And inevitably: to suffer from. In some cases: be destroyed by.