A newsy ☀️ @PunchbowlNews laying out our reporting from the Capitol on the Democrats strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats
Strengths: House Ds clearly have the better arguments. All the jurors lived through the Jan. 6 attack. The American public saw it.
Strengths: House Ds clearly have the better arguments. All the jurors lived through the Jan. 6 attack. The American public saw it.
@PunchbowlNews They saw Trump claiming for months that the election was stolen from him and his supporters. They saw the president of the United States suggest that his supporters should go to the Capitol.
Then they saw those protestors smash their way into the Capitol. The Democrats’ claim is all pretty clear cut. We also saw on Tuesday that the former president’s defense team is … lackluster to say the least. So Rep. Jamie Raskin’s (D-Md.) squad has the advantage here.
Weaknesses: Well this is obvious too. The impeachment managers’ primary weakness is that they’re trying to convince a Senate Republican Conference that is largely unwilling to be convinced that Trump is guilty.
They can lay out the case in a compelling way, tell the story in the most elegant fashion, show hours of video evidence, and yet there’s virtually zero chance that 17 Senate Republicans vote with them.
Opportunities: If you’re an optimist and you look closely enough, squinting your eyes while you do, perhaps you can find a speck of hope here for Team Raskin.
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) was so moved by the Democrats’ argument Tuesday over the constitutionality of their cause that he switched his vote and backed a motion to proceed with the trial. That’s a big deal in a party where even a vote stating the most obvious is controversial.
Is there a scenario in which Democrats flip even more GOP senators to convict Trump? Sure. There’s also a scenario that this email will change your life. But neither of those things seem hopeful or likely. At least not the ‘GOP senators vote to convict Trump’ part.
Threats: When you can’t win, in a sense, you really can’t lose either. And that’s the dynamic for the House Democratic impeachment managers. There’s no real downside here; no one expects them to win anyway.
So their mission is to do their best, make sure the American public and fellow Democrats witness it, and then pray for a good outcome.
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