Brexit red tape isn't a zero sum game.

If new (new for us now we're a third country) red tape means someone now has to spend 2 hours a day filling in forms, and their time is worth Β£30/hour to their firm, that's Β£60 gone every day.

Nobody got that Β£60. It's just lost to Brexit.
Now scale all that wasted effort by tens or hundreds of thousands of firms, and you quickly reach eye-watering numbers no matter what underlying figures you use.

All these losses are wasted opportunity, lost to Brexit friction. Nobody profited from them. The money is just gone.
Some of this is teething problems. An unfamiliar form takes longer to get to grips with than one you've completed a hundred times already. You only have to establish the origin of any given product once, and afterwards you have that information. And so on.

But a lot is systemic.
Some firms won't be able to afford the learning curve costs, and will give up selling to the EU. (That may be enough to tip some into bankruptcy.)

Others will weather the initial period, but face permanently higher costs from the extra friction, making them less competitive.

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More from @uk_domain_names

12 Feb
Brexiters: "Let's just sign any old Brexit deal. Financial services can wait until next year. It's not as if the City is going anywhere."

Banks and exchanges: "Click [Transfer] button. Done."

And just like that, London lost its crown for stock trading, derivatives trading etc.
"Amsterdam overtakes London as Europe's top share trading centre"
theguardian.com/business/2021/…
"Derivatives trades worth billions flees London for New York post-Brexit"

(Only left because London offers zero benefit as a location now we're out of the EU. Money doesn't care about geography, only legal and regulatory environment.)
uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/brexit-lo…
Read 7 tweets
11 Feb
We import more food than we export, across every single product category (opposite is true of beverages).

We depend on the EU for 26% of all our food, and for 57.8% (26/45) of all our food imports.

Brexit has just erected massive barriers to that trade.
gov.uk/government/sta…
At the moment, Brexit barriers are predominantly one way, because we're not yet checking incoming goods.

But we are due to implement partial checks from April (if that happens) and full checks from July (again, assuming we don't drag our feet).

Trade will become even harder.
Let's be clear what's going on.

The EU has two sets of rules. One set for members. The other for third countries, ie non-members.

(We helped write those rules while we were an EU member. We know exactly what they are.)

Now, having left, the third country rules apply to us too.
Read 4 tweets
10 Feb
Admittedly it crams a LOT of stories onto its online front page,
but the Express is absolutely obsessed with Brexit and with attacking the EU, with no fewer than 30 such stories on there at the moment...

Brainwashing with a power washer!

No wonder people were deceived.
They're also the only newspaper to still have a daily live blog devoted exclusively to Brexit, often with dozens of updates, and the most supernova of hot takes on it you can imagine.
By contrast, the EU have moved on completely (and why shouldn't they?)

Just check out the replies to this earlier tweet...
Read 4 tweets
9 Feb
Matt Hancock has said...

"People who need hotel quarantine will need to pay Β£1,750 per individual for the hotel, transport and testing."

Talk about platinum-plating. There's platinum layered on gold layered on silver on that pricing!
theguardian.com/politics/live/…
Normally, when you bulk-buy, you'd expect a discount.

Yet the Tories have managed to block book thousands of hotel rooms in hotels that would otherwise have been empty, and yet still managed to end up paying over the top rates for them.
To put the price into context, 10 nights at the Novotel (one of the closest hotels to Heathrow) starting tonight would cost you Β£632. The Ibis would be Β£440, or the Radisson Β£639.

You'd have to add lunches and dinners, but you would die of caviar overload before hitting Β£1,750.
Read 4 tweets
9 Feb
The dirty secret of Brexit? It hurts less the bigger you are.

If you're a large firm, you can amortise the cost of engaging extra staff to do paperwork.

You also face the same red tape as a small company - but instead of writing "20 widgets" on forms you write "2000 widgets".
Beyond a certain size, you can afford to engage dedicated hauliers, and that means your shipments will not get held up by problems with consignments carried on behalf of other firms.

If you need to register chemicals, again you're amortising a fixed cost across higher volumes.
And so on, and so forth.

Beyond a certain size, and assuming your products don't fall foul of Rules of Origin issues, Brexit really is just a rounding error...

until it's not.

Why? Tragedy of the commons. Everyone shares ports. If they get totally blocked, you're stuck too.
Read 5 tweets
9 Feb
Every time one or other industry encounters Brexit barriers, representatives call for their elimination.

But there's still little or no recognition of why the barriers exist: because we chose to leave the Single Market & Customs Union.

We did that to ourselves. Not the EU. Us.
It's like being in a car careering down a steep hill and screaming "stop!" without acknowledging that it's only in motion because we deliberately took the footbrake and handbrake off.

We could have left the brakes on. We didn't. So we don't get to blame the hill, or gravity.
We can't fix the Brexit deal without modifying it. Not merely interpretation.

We can't modify the Brexit deal without winding our stiff necks in and accepting things we rejected so far. Our red lines must change.

(And all changes must be negotiated with the EU and signed off.)
Read 5 tweets

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