We've all sorted worldometer's table by deaths/1m, seen the data in the blue bars (to Feb6), and thought, wow 🇬🇧's pretty bad.
But, we're all getting our comparisons so wrong.
i.e. red bars are d/1m just for 50-59yr olds.
Why so different?
Follow me to open your eyes.
1/10
Main cause, 2🔑factors:
▶️Demographic: a pop's d/1m figure is still wgted by age, so fewer 80+ it's lower
▶️Policy: e.g. 🇩🇪's just managed spread better
Re-ranking most2least aging, a pattern emerges.
For a younger pop to have a high d/1m, it's had more spread & deaths.
2/10
So how much do demographics vary?
Here for:
▶️the countries so far
▶️adding a few more
▶️plus, the world
Are the props. each 10yr age band make up.
50% marks median age, so:
Italy 🇮🇹 47
Eng🏴&Wal🏴 41
🌍 30
Nigeria🇳🇬 just 18
So expecting similar deaths overall is silly.
3/10
It matters as, per pic,🌍serology studies show risk goes up 3x with each band.
So, a countries IFR is demographic dependent.
Ignoring healthcare/comorbidity for a sec, it means we can est each countries IFR.
If you infected everyone, Italy will have 10x Nigeria's deaths.
4/10
So how do deaths compare?
Here to Feb6 are props. by age in original set of places.
So in terms of death >80:
▶️Eng&Wal: 61%
▶️NY state: 44%
▶️Moldova: 13%
▶️Peru: 18%
Big diffs, but, it is already clear, that there are other factors at play, Norway 64%, Urkaine 20%?
5/10
Adding to the pop IFR ests:
▶️Wgted IFR of actual deaths:
👉⬆️than est, skew to old
👉⬇️to young
▶️% dead
and Norway/SK/etc, become clear. Low deaths mean carehome outbreaks look worse.
But, with deaths, protecting old hard:
Austria: worst
Ukraine: best
Eng&Wal: not bad
6/10
Other factors?
Next biggest reporting.
🥇🌍similar
🥈🌍per bit.ly/3a8HZe3 Brazil in places 1/5, Nigeria likely 1/10
15% in UK hosps die, 50% need O2, so outside, 3x.
But, key is that🥈🌍have not published all-cause yet, so we're only comparing hosp deaths atm.
7/10
Where it is about factors like:
▶️healthcare: ICU beds nos, quality, etc
▶️comorbidity rates: e.g. obesity, OECD 4x Pakistan, but we're talking only 15% of pop.
▶️lifestyle impacts: elderly at homeOR in carehomes?
Many cancel out.
e.g. 1st🌍better healthcare, but fatter.
8/10
For sure 2nd🌍all-cause when pub-ed will change this.
But, till then let's est:
▶️% of poss. deaths
▶️% spread
Shows IFRs in Brazil/Peru likely higher, but they've defo more spread.
100% impossible, but even if IgA/Tcell immunity still real NY shows we could be worse.
9/10
Finally, a resolution buster! Ratio of deaths/1m by age to 🏴🏴:
▶️NY: worse, more dense & slower to LD?
▶️Brazil/Peru: higher in all ages
▶️NYC&Brazil similar, except <20, where far higher?
▶️Ukraine: similar, but protected old best
▶️EU: more LD, bad at CHs
▶️SK: best