Thread by @Nate_Cohn

What happened in Georgia just can't be exported to the Midwest. That's not to say that organizing and party building is irrelevant and that there couldn't be any lessons. But the outcomes aren't replicable
nytimes.com/2021/02/11/opi…

The core of what happened in Georgia since, say, '06 has happened almost everywhere in the country. It just works out to the Democratic advantage in Georgia in a way that it hasn't elsewhere

1) Obama mobilized a huge and partly durable increase in Black voter turnout. That largely happened between 04 and 08; it subsided partly since 12, and it helped Ds more in GA-->30% black--than anywhere else that matters.
Hence, Obama only lost by 5/8 pts in Bush+17 state

2) GOP has made huge gains over the same period with whites without a degree nationwide. This did less for the GOP in GA than anywhere that matters, bc
a) Kerry only won ~20-25% of white working class in GA in '04
b) White wc voters represent a smaller share of the electorate

3) Democrats have made huge gains among white voters with a degree over the Trump era. Democrats more opportunities here than elsewhere because of a) a highly educated white population, b) a highly republican white well-educated population

You can synthesize 2/3 together with this map from pre-2016.
After TX, Georgia ranked #2 in the country for net-vote swing opportunity for Democrats in an era of trading white working class for college educated voters

4) The nation has steadily become more diverse, which has helped Democrats more in fast growing Georgia.
As you can see from this '16 chart, Georgia ranks #1 for helping Democrats in the net effect of demographic change

So basically the last 16 years of American politics have meant Georgia Democrats have had a stronger wind at their backs than anywhere else in the country, with the *possible* exception of Texas (where Democrats have made roughly identical gains)

Now I don't think that means the organizers, candidates, state parties, etc. are irrelevant story. After all, you do need a good sailor even if you have a strong wind at your back. But I don't think we should assume a good sailor will match their record without the record wind

They are/have, depending on your measure! In fact, Texas has moved left faster than Georgia since 04/08/12 (though not 16, thanks to the Hispanic shift)

https://twitter.com/LongXTruong/status/1359997293974413315?s=20