1. The good news is that the US Covid numbers overnight continue to show cases, hospitalizations and deaths falling fast. The 7-day average number of new cases is now down 59% from the peak. But…
2. The bad news is that the UK variant, B117, now accounts for 4% of US cases, including 10% in Florida. much more infectious than old Covid and there's no way the existing restrictions across the US can keep it at bay...
h/t @DrEricDing and @my_helix
3. The variant now is on course to become dominant by late March, which means total new cases (old + B117) could start to rise again - fast. Absent a return to stay-home orders, the only way to stop this happening is faster vaccination. Too soon to tell if the race will be won
4. To be clear, B117 will be beaten by vaccination in due course. But it could delay the final quashing of Covid in the US by a few months. Markets aren't priced for that.
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1. Bloomberg @business just reported that Florida cases rose 3.0% today, below the 7-day average, 3.7%. This is good, right? No. Like many other places, FL cases vary across the week in a reasonably consistent pattern because of reporting delays over weekends.
2. Mondays are usually low-increase days for Florida. The bad news is that today's 3.0% increase compares to 2.3% Monday last week and just 1.5% the previous week. This is what matters. This is why the 7-day average number of new FL cases has risen for the 21st straight day...
3. ...It now stands at 3,328, having doubled in just eight days. If this continues, Fl will be reporting 26.6K cases *per day* by mid-July. Right now, the 7-day average for the *entire US* is... 26.6K.