Thread by @ChadPergram

1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Senate Trial today
 
What is expected to be the final day of President Trump’s second impeachment trial will begin at 10 am et today. We anticipate a final vote on the guilt or innocence of the former President as early as midday.

2) But more likely, early afternoon.
 
One unresolved question is whether there will be an effort to summon evidence and documents in the case. The Senate has concluded the Q&A portion of the trial.

3) The organizing resolution for the trial indicates that questions of bringing in evidence or witnesses is next. It’s possible the Senate could have separate debates and votes on BOTH questions (evidence and witnesses).
BUT…

4) It’s possible, if there is no request for evidence and documents that the Senate could just skip over this part and speed to what the organizing resolution calls “final arguments.”

5) If the latter is the case the Senate could just agree, via unanimous consent, to bypass the sections of the trial framework dealing with evidence and witnesses. That would have to be addressed on the floor. But in this scenario, would only take a few moments.

6) It is generally understood that asking for evidence or witnesses would really stretch out the trial. In fact, the trial would likely go dark on the floor for a couple of weeks as both sides would have to depose witnesses and go through the legal “discovery” process.

7) Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) repeatedly says it is up to lead impeachment manager Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) to determine if he wants witnesses. That’s not entirely true. Defense counsel is also afforded a similar opportunity to request evidence and witnesses.

8) And moreover, the overall question evidence and witnesses is decided by the Senate via a majority vote.
 
So, we may see a little action on the floor pertaining to evidence and documents. There COULD even be a roll call vote or two.

9) But it’s more likely that the Senate will go to hastily to “final arguments.”
 
The trial framework allows for four hours of final arguments, equally divided, by the impeachment managers and the President’s defense counsel. We DO NOT hear from senators.

10) They do NOT debate the guilt or innocence on the floor. Senators are jurors. They just vote.
 
During the final vote, we expect senators to be seated at their desks. The Clerk will call the roll alphabetically.

11) Senate impeachment rule XXIII (23) states that “each Senator, as his name is called, shall rise in his place and answer: guilty or not guilty.”
 
This vote will likely consume less than ten minutes.

12) In the impeachment trial of President Clinton in 1999, the late Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) rose from his desk and voted “not proven.” He added “therefore, not guilty.” Specter was citing a provision in Scottish law where juries can decide a case as “proven” or “not proven.”

13) Senate Clerks weren’t quite sure what to do with Specter’s vote. Senate rules are specific to The late Chief Justice William Rehnquist, presiding over the trial, determined that Specter’s proclamation counted as a “not guilty” verdict.  

A 2/3 vote is required to convict

14) Watch to see how many GOPers may vote to convict. Six GOPers voted to proceed with the trial earlier in the week: Sens. Mitt Romney (R-UT), Ben Sasse (R-NE), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Susan Collins (R-ME) and Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and Pat Toomey (R-PA).

15) It is notable that Romney voted yes on one article of impeachment in Mr. Trump’s trial last year: abuse of power. Romney became only the first member of a President’s party to vote to convict on an article of impeachment.

16) We don’t believe the vote will get close to to the two-thirds threshold to convict. But we it’s possible the Senate could come the closest to convicting a President since Andrew Johnson’s trial in 1868.

17) In that trial, the Senate voted 35-19 on a combination of articles, one shy of the 36 needed to convict back then. 

In President Clinton’s trial, 45 senators voted to convict on obstruction of justice. But 50 votes to convict on abuse of power.

18) In President Trump’s trial last year, 48 senators votes to convict on abuse of power. 47 votes to convict on obstruction of Congress.

19) This is also shaping up as the shortest impeachment trial of any sort in American history: five trial days. It is certainly the most abbreviated trial for a President.

20) The trial of President Andrew Johnson chewed up three months. President Bill Clinton’s trial ran five weeks. President Donald Trump’s trial last year consumed a little more than two weeks.

21) The shortest trial was that of Federal Judge Thomas Porteous in 2010: two days. The longest impeachment trial came in 1876 for Secretary of War William Belknap, consuming several months.