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Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
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14 Feb, 4 tweets, 2 min read
UK Government referendum leaflet, 2016: Brexit could result in 10 years or more of uncertainty.

Dominic Raab, 2021: You have to take a 10-year view of Brexit to see the growth opportunities. (Paraphrased.)

Project Fear? Project Fact! ImageImage
Here's the Raab clip...
Here's more about what Raab said...
theguardian.com/politics/2021/…
And here's the original leaflet distributed in 2016.

If you read it carefully with 2021 eyes, knowing everything we now know, you'll see that it was actually pretty close. (Far more than anyone was willing to give it credit for at the time!)
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

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More from @uk_domain_names

Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
12 Feb
Donald Trump's impeachment defence is weird because his lawyer is bringing up stuff he says the Democrats didn't mention, when they did.

They spent a long time analysing what Trump did in the afternoon, but he's pretending the Democrats only addressed his conduct after 6pm.
He's also claiming the Democrats didn't explain what Trump did when, whereas all the exhibits they presented were meticulously time-stamped.
Plus the idea that evidentiary videos are better with film trailer-like music soundtracks is just... odd.
Read 4 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
12 Feb
Whoever "Corporate Travel Management (North) Ltd" is, they've just hit the jackpot!

They seem to be behind both the £1,750 quarantine hotels, and the mandatory £210 Covid home testing kits (for travellers arriving from destinations not on the Red List).
gov.uk/guidance/booki…
The link from the official government webpage takes you to this mid-1990s style gateway page.
…arantinehotelbookings.ctmportal.co.uk
From there, you can head to the CTM-branded "Managed Quarantine" hotel booking page...
quarantinehotels.ctmportal.co.uk

Or alternatively to the CTM-branded "Covid testing package" booking page.
quarantinehotels.ctmportal.co.uk/Quarantine/Hom…

In other words, their fingerprints are all over the whole thing!
Read 6 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
12 Feb
Brexiters: "Let's just sign any old Brexit deal. Financial services can wait until next year. It's not as if the City is going anywhere."

Banks and exchanges: "Click [Transfer] button. Done."

And just like that, London lost its crown for stock trading, derivatives trading etc.
"Amsterdam overtakes London as Europe's top share trading centre"
theguardian.com/business/2021/…
"Derivatives trades worth billions flees London for New York post-Brexit"

(Only left because London offers zero benefit as a location now we're out of the EU. Money doesn't care about geography, only legal and regulatory environment.)
uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/brexit-lo…
Read 7 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
11 Feb
Brexit red tape isn't a zero sum game.

If new (new for us now we're a third country) red tape means someone now has to spend 2 hours a day filling in forms, and their time is worth £30/hour to their firm, that's £60 gone every day.

Nobody got that £60. It's just lost to Brexit.
Now scale all that wasted effort by tens or hundreds of thousands of firms, and you quickly reach eye-watering numbers no matter what underlying figures you use.

All these losses are wasted opportunity, lost to Brexit friction. Nobody profited from them. The money is just gone.
Some of this is teething problems. An unfamiliar form takes longer to get to grips with than one you've completed a hundred times already. You only have to establish the origin of any given product once, and afterwards you have that information. And so on.

But a lot is systemic.
Read 4 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
11 Feb
We import more food than we export, across every single product category (opposite is true of beverages).

We depend on the EU for 26% of all our food, and for 57.8% (26/45) of all our food imports.

Brexit has just erected massive barriers to that trade.
gov.uk/government/sta…
At the moment, Brexit barriers are predominantly one way, because we're not yet checking incoming goods.

But we are due to implement partial checks from April (if that happens) and full checks from July (again, assuming we don't drag our feet).

Trade will become even harder.
Let's be clear what's going on.

The EU has two sets of rules. One set for members. The other for third countries, ie non-members.

(We helped write those rules while we were an EU member. We know exactly what they are.)

Now, having left, the third country rules apply to us too.
Read 4 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
10 Feb
Admittedly it crams a LOT of stories onto its online front page,
but the Express is absolutely obsessed with Brexit and with attacking the EU, with no fewer than 30 such stories on there at the moment...

Brainwashing with a power washer!

No wonder people were deceived.
They're also the only newspaper to still have a daily live blog devoted exclusively to Brexit, often with dozens of updates, and the most supernova of hot takes on it you can imagine.
By contrast, the EU have moved on completely (and why shouldn't they?)

Just check out the replies to this earlier tweet...
Read 4 tweets

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