Thread by @SmartStake

1/8 - #Terra $Luna supply future outlook analysis & its likely consequences

- to meet $UST demand, $Luna continues to be burned to mint more $UST
- 6.6m $Luna burnt in each of the last 2 days
- terra.smartstake.io/history shows the burn & supply metrics

@terra_money #LunaToMoon

2/8 - pace is expected to remain at this level in near future & if anything may increase when proposal station.terra.money/proposal/36 is passed
- assumption - all network parameters remain as is i.e. same $Luna price, same staking ratio, TFL holdings not required 4 burning $Luna

3/8 - assumption - same $UST demand as today or atleast enough demand to not require the reverse flow (i.e. burn $UST & mint $Luna)

consideration - 64.4m staked amount from TFL holdings is excluded from calculations (plays no role in outcome)

4/8 - Model 1 - $Luna burnt at same rate as last 2 days (about 6.6 million) - source terra.smartstake.io

- by end of 19th March, liquid supply will be 0 i.e. there will be no more $Luna left in the market/exchanges for burning

5/8 - Model 2 - $Luna burnt at 50% of the burn rate as last 2 days (about 6.6 million = 3.3m) - source terra.smartstake.io

- by 21st April, liquid supply will be 0 i.e. there will be no more $Luna left in the market/exchanges for burning

6/8 - The above models are unlikely to play out as-is. They are created to show case that $Luna supply will continue to diminish in the prevailing circumstances. As long as $UST demand remains, $Luna will gradually become more and more scarce.

Irrespective of actual burn rate ..

7/8 - irrespective of the actual burn rate, between now and next few months, there will be a point where $Luna supply will very scarce.

And at that point of time, the price is going to explode and just keep going upwards. Moon ride is not far 🚀

Are you packed yet?

8/8 - Product announcements/other fundamentals can make this happen at much faster pace

Negative considerations -
- market nosedives for non-Luna reasons
- $UST demand drops significantly
- Terraform Labs is burning tons of $Luna (out of non-circulation supply)

See you on moon