Thread by @BowTiePolitics

"If negotiating a post-Donald-Trump world has been a disorienting experience for Republicans around the country, it is especially acute in NC, a state that has become a polarized, and nearly deadlocked, partisan battleground."

However...1/2 nytimes.com/2021/02/14/us/… #ncpol #ncsen

2/2:

“'The G.O.P. base is getting smaller,' said Paul Shumaker, a veteran party strategist in Raleigh."

#ncpol #ncsen

nytimes.com/2021/02/14/us/…

Granted, the GOP base is composed of both registered Republicans + registered unaffiliated voters who vote GOP.

But since November, the greatest # of defections from party registration has been among registered Republicans in NC's 7M voters (data courtesy of @NCSBE):

From Nov. 7, 2020 through yesterday (2-13-21), the majority of NC voters who have switched parties has been among formerly registered Republicans.

20K+ registered Republican voters have left the GOP affiliation, with 87% going to 'unaffiliated' party registration status #ncpol

Next are those who were unaffiliated in Nov and now have picked a party (16K):

Unaffiliated who went GOP: 52%
Unaffiliated who went Democratic: 48%

13K reg Democrats switched, with 65% going unaffiliated & 35% going reg Republican

#ncpol #ncgop #ncdem

In looking just at registered Republican to unaffiliated party switchers:

82% of them are White non-Hispanic

35% are Boomers
29% GenXers
25% Millennials

31% from surrounding suburban counties
28% from urban suburbs
26% from central cities
14% from rural counties

#ncpol

Also, among these GOP-to-UNA voters:

86% of them voted in the 2020 general election
14% did not vote last November

Granted, this a small percentage of the overall GOP registration # (2.16M), but something to keep in mind and track of going forward.

And (I would hypothesize) just because these voters have gone from registered GOP to unaffiliated does *not* equate to them necessarily leaving the GOP when it comes to voting.

But that will be something to watch over time, if analysis can provide it.

~fin~

One more tweet to add to this NC registered voter party-switchers/defectors (however you want to frame it) thread.

Within the 17K GOP-to-Unaffiliated switchers, only a third of them (6K) voted in March 2020 primary election.

11.7K did not vote in March primary. #ncpol