I have to say that I am somewhat conflicted on the subject of Russia sanctions. 👇🏿
On the one hand, we know (from ample historical experience) that they do not reverse bad behaviour in the short- to medium- term. On the other hand, in the long term they create a moral framework that makes it possible to tell what bad behaviour actually is.
This actually does help reverse bad behaviour in the long term, since the sanctioned party - for all of its protests - perfectly understands 'who's been naughty', and ultimately seeks to reengage on more acceptable terms. (Case study: Gorbachev).
On the one hand, sanctions tend to worsen the overall relationship, making confrontation more likely. On the other hand, they may also help deter the sanctioned party from making further missteps. While confrontation is easily visible, the deterrent potential remains unknown.
On the one hand, sanctions seemingly frame Russia's opposition as Western lackeys. On the other hand, the regime does not need sanctions to frame the opposition as subservient to the West - it has long been doing it anyway.
On the one hand, sanctions lead to accusations of double standards (since there always others out there that are worse who remain unsanctioned). On the other hand, inconsistent resolve is arguably better than consistent cowardice.
If you are going to start punishing bullies, might as well start with the big kid on the block, especially if that kid has particularly malign influence in the broader region (case study: Belarus).
On the one hand, we are not perfect ourselves - why not start with ourselves instead of sanctioning others? This one is the most difficult of all. I don't quite know how to answer this. Let me try the following:
Drawing red lines externally helps maintain them internally. In this sense, condemning illegal usurpation of power, or violation of human rights in Russia goes some way towards establishing who we are here in Europe.
Sanctions in this sense are not about Russia - they are about ourselves, our values, and our identity.
Discuss.
Discuss.
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