Confidential info from a market participant in ERCOT: As of ~10 AM Eastern time, the system has ~30 GW of capacity offline, ~26 GW of thermal -- mostly natural gas which cant get fuel deliveries which are being priorities for heating loads -- and ~4 GW of wind due to icing.
That is a HUGE amount of gas capacity offline, about 30% of total ERCOT capacity and ~half of the natural gas fleet, according to Dec 2020 Capacity Demand and Reserves report here: ercot.com/content/wcm/li…
Devastating for reliability.
If we look at Winter planning scenerio ERCOT was using for 2026/27 (table below), they were planning for a peak demand of 67,512 "based on normal weather." Demand last night (in 2021 not 2026/27!) was 69,150
If we look closer at the ERCOT Capacity, Demand and Reserves report, it also shows how much wind capacity they count on in winter peaking events (below). They plan on different % of installed capacity to be avialable in each region: 43% for coast, 32% panhandle & 19% for other
In total, that means ERCOT is counting on 1,542 MW of coastal wind output, 1,411 MW of panhandle wind and 3,251 MW of other wind for a total of 6,204 MW of wind from currently operational facilities. 6.2 GW. Use that to track how wind performs during this emergency.
Now if we look at another table, we can see how ERCOT thinks it will get its winter capacity by fuel type. They assume 100% of thermal units are available during winter peaking events. In reality, they lost 26 GW (if my source is correct) = 35% of total 75 GW of total thermal.
You can also see in that table they count on wind for <10% of total winter capacity + thermal for 89%. No matter how wind performs this week -- important for future planning! -- it is the big failure of thermal plants, mostly gas units, that is causing such widespread outages now
As a New Englander until 2019, I know the region has long contended with -- & planned to address -- constraints on natural gas delivery in winter peaking events. They maintain large duel fuel capacity (gas units that switch to oil if needed) w/onsite storage. TX has clearly not.
Texas relies overwhelmingly on natural gas units for winter peaking capacity, 66% of the total or 56.1 GW. If ~26 GW is offline due to inability to procure fuel (as I've been told), that is a devastating indictment of ERCOT winter planning & major cause of rotating outages.
We'll learn a lot more as this winter emergency progresses, and as we get public reporting. That will inform how much of this was due to market design v planning failures. But counting on gas units to all be there there during extreme winter events is a clear recipe for failure.
The primary issues now appear to be lack of fuel delivery to natural gas units, both due to frozen gas lines and to supply prioritization for gas heating demand over electric generators. Some wind generators out due to icing too, but that's second order by far.
I'll end this here as I have to get back to work. I wish everyone in Texas best as they weather this emergency!
Clarification: Info from a confidential market participant/source. Not that the info is confidential! Sorry.
p.s. there's a #climatechange angle in here, as usual. The polar vortex is breaking down due to Arctic warming, which is allowing cold weather to spread down into North America more often, including today's cold snap carbonbrief.org/qa-how-is-arct…
This is unbelievably bad. I am astonished that the Senate language got WORSE overnight than even the House version. This One Big Horrible Bill will raise energy costs, kill $100s of billions of new investment in energy & manufacturing, make our grid less reliable, increase pollution, and constrain our ability to compete with China for the future or AI. Total loser stuff.
The new Senate draft raises taxes on all wind and solar projects that haven't begun construction today unless they are placed service by end of 2027 and navigate complex, likely unworkable requirements to prove they don't use a drop of Chinese materials. After that, this bill ADDS A NEW tax on wind and solar projects that can't prove the same.
Oh & it does so while killing the tax credits to support domestic manufacturing of wind components at the end of 2027 & adding the same unworkable requirements to the credits supporting US solar & critical minerals. It'll murder our nascent clean energy manufacturing sectors.
Everyone seems to be framing Trump's freeze on federal grants as a Constitutional fight over powers of the purse & whether presidents can disregard Congressional appropriations. It is that. But also at stake is the fundamental validity of govt contracts! I see much less discussion on this... 🧵
Trump isnt just trying to impound appropriated but unobligated funding. He's frozen dispersement of billions of dollars of CONTRACTUALLY OBLIGATED funds. Whatever you think about the validity of impounding unobligated funds, this is quite clearly a direct and widespread violation of contract law. 🧵
While the courts forced Trump's OMB to revoke its across-the-board freeze on ALL federal assistance (grants, loans etc), the White House continues to forbid dispersment of obligated funds for various programs they just dont like, including clean energy, anything that smells of DEI, foreign aid etc 🧵
Vance last night: "We should be making more solar panels here in the United States of America."
Me last night yelling at the TV: THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT AMERICA IS DOING UNDER THE BIDEN-HARRIS ADMINISTRATION (AND EVERY SINGLE REPUBLICAN VOTED AGAINST THE LAW THAT MADE IT HAPPEN)!!
And it's not just solar panel manufacturing. After decades of politicians like Vance making empty promises to bring manufacturing back to America, WE'RE ACTUALLY DOING IT! Thanks to clean energy & industrial policy laws passed under Biden & Harris.
Just last week, Ohio-based solar PV manufacturer @FirstSolar inaugurated a new $1.1 billion manufacturing facility in Alabama that adds 3.5 gigawatts of fully vertically integrated solar manufacturing capacity in the US. That's ~10% of the US market for solar. madeinalabama.com/2024/09/first-…
Two years ago today, President Biden signed into the law the landmark Inflation Reducation Act, supercharging the clean energy transition.
Today, REPEAT Project releases 'Climate Progress 2024,' our annual update and analysis of US progress on the path to net-zero emissions.
In this 2024 update, we've thoroughly refreshed all assumptions, calibrated near-term constraints against real-world trends & announced investments, and accounted for several federal regulations (EPA emissions rules & DOE efficiency standards) finalized by in the last year.
In todays' Summary Report (available at ), we provide high level results from REPEAT Project’s 2024 Annual U.S. Emissions Pathways Update.
A final report with further detailed findings and an updated data portal with quantitative results will be published soon at .repeatproject.org/reports repeatproject.org
For my entire life, I've heard politicians talk about bringing manufacturing jobs back to America.
It is FINALLY happening.
"We're not going back!" has been @KamalaHarris's rallying cry. But those jobs & industries of the future now hang in the balance this #election.
🧵
The Biden-Harris Admin & 117th Congress enacted a trio of laws (IIJA, IRA, CHIPS) that made major public investments to grow & strengthen several key industries of the future: semiconductors, EVs, batteries, solar & wind, hydrogen, clean steel. jackconness.com/ira-chips-inve…
Those new laws and other Biden-Harris Administration actions on trade & tariffs have amplified and directed a reshoring megatrend and driven a massive surge in private sector investments in US manufacturing, creating tens of thousands of good jobs in communities across America.
A federal judge temporarily halted completion of a 102-mile high voltage transmission line that would connect dozens of renewable energy projects to the grid, at the behest of three environmental groups. 🤦♂️ reuters.com/sustainability…
At issue: Driftless Area Land Conservancy, National Wildlife Refuge Association & Wisconsin Wildlife Federation sued to block a land swap approved by US Dept of Interior that would add 35 new acres of land to a wildlife refuge in exchange for 20 acres crossed by the line Come on!
I wonder where @audubonsociety @nature_org & @NWF are at on this project. They've done a lot to help keep a more balanced perspective on broad benefits of transmission to connect clean electricity resources and local environmental impacts.