<thread> on the true significance of Senate impeachment vote.
57-43 was an extraordinary bipartisan vote to convict.
But the Republican support for House Managers case was even stronger.
We looked at statements of those 43 Republican Senators.
justsecurity.org/74725/in-their…
57-43 was an extraordinary bipartisan vote to convict.
But the Republican support for House Managers case was even stronger.
We looked at statements of those 43 Republican Senators.
justsecurity.org/74725/in-their…
2. Other analysts (eg @danielsgoldman) have noted those 43 Republican Senators include several essentially saying they would convict but for the issue of jurisdiction over a former official.
The strongest on this include: McConnell, Portman, Thune. But others too.
The strongest on this include: McConnell, Portman, Thune. But others too.
3. Many of 43 GOP Senators didn't reach the merits. They rested purely on jurisdiction.
As we write: "It is technically inaccurate to call many of these 43 senators’ decisions a vote to 'acquit,' at least not on the question of guilt or innocence."
(h/t @AdHaque110)
As we write: "It is technically inaccurate to call many of these 43 senators’ decisions a vote to 'acquit,' at least not on the question of guilt or innocence."
(h/t @AdHaque110)
4. This closer analysis of the actual reasons Republican Senators provided for their votes is a friendly corrective to those who say that public opinion surveys showing 56-58% in favor of conviction matches the Senate vote.
cc: @David_Gergen @peterbakernyt
cc: @David_Gergen @peterbakernyt
5. Indeed, I worry about a feedback loop.
Headlines blazon "Acquitted," commentators suggest (erroneously) that 43 Senators said Trump was not guilty, etc.
That message is then fed to the public which informs their beliefs about whether the facts proved Trump was guilty.
Headlines blazon "Acquitted," commentators suggest (erroneously) that 43 Senators said Trump was not guilty, etc.
That message is then fed to the public which informs their beliefs about whether the facts proved Trump was guilty.
6. Some pro-Trump Senators with more peculiar positions are more engaged with media, and set tone for framing the trial.
Example:
Sen. Lindsey Graham appears next day on Fox News Sunday lauding Trump.
Yet see how Graham is in small 11% of Senators with such strong support.👇
Example:
Sen. Lindsey Graham appears next day on Fox News Sunday lauding Trump.
Yet see how Graham is in small 11% of Senators with such strong support.👇
7. Deeper analysis of the votes shows @LeaderMcConnell has greater chance to save GOP from Trump than one might realize.
It also indicates potentially deeper support to disqualify Trump under the 14th Amendment's insurrection clause, which may require 60 votes in Senate.
<end>
It also indicates potentially deeper support to disqualify Trump under the 14th Amendment's insurrection clause, which may require 60 votes in Senate.
<end>
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