<thread> on the true significance of Senate impeachment vote.

57-43 was an extraordinary bipartisan vote to convict.

But the Republican support for House Managers case was even stronger.

We looked at statements of those 43 Republican Senators.
2. Other analysts (eg @danielsgoldman) have noted those 43 Republican Senators include several essentially saying they would convict but for the issue of jurisdiction over a former official.

The strongest on this include: McConnell, Portman, Thune. But others too.
3. Many of 43 GOP Senators didn't reach the merits. They rested purely on jurisdiction.

As we write: "It is technically inaccurate to call many of these 43 senators’ decisions a vote to 'acquit,' at least not on the question of guilt or innocence."

(h/t @AdHaque110)
4. This closer analysis of the actual reasons Republican Senators provided for their votes is a friendly corrective to those who say that public opinion surveys showing 56-58% in favor of conviction matches the Senate vote.

cc: @David_Gergen @peterbakernyt
5. Indeed, I worry about a feedback loop.

Headlines blazon "Acquitted," commentators suggest (erroneously) that 43 Senators said Trump was not guilty, etc.

That message is then fed to the public which informs their beliefs about whether the facts proved Trump was guilty.
6. Some pro-Trump Senators with more peculiar positions are more engaged with media, and set tone for framing the trial.


Sen. Lindsey Graham appears next day on Fox News Sunday lauding Trump.

Yet see how Graham is in small 11% of Senators with such strong support.👇
7. Deeper analysis of the votes shows @LeaderMcConnell has greater chance to save GOP from Trump than one might realize.

It also indicates potentially deeper support to disqualify Trump under the 14th Amendment's insurrection clause, which may require 60 votes in Senate.


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More from @rgoodlaw

17 Jan
House impeachment managers should enter this Wall Street Journal report into the record.

“The Journal’s review, which included now-deleted posts that have been archived ... suggests the Proud Boys viewed Mr. Trump’s messages as a call to action.”

2. Plus this:

“The messages show the group repeatedly invoking President Trump’s rhetoric in the weeks leading to the Jan. 6 protest as they built momentum toward what became a violent showdown.”

On Jan. 3, the group’s leader shared a cryptic post: “What if we invade it?”

December 19: ,Trump tweets about the Jan. 6 rally and says, “be there, will be wild!”

Proud Boys’ Long Island chapter posted that Trump supporters have been “waiting for the green light from the President.”

“Everyone who said ‘Mr. President, just say when?’ He just did.”
Read 5 tweets
16 Jan
My greatest concerns next few days:

1) state capitals

2) insider threats from extremists/white supremacists within National Guard, Secret Service, etc.

3) Trump chaos*

* Note however: Tata leaving this past week (@laraseligman); Michael Ellis apparently never made it to NSA
2. On Tata (via Politico’s @laraseligman from Thursday):

“Anthony Tata ... will step down this week, ahead of President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration, according to three Defense officials.”

3. Update on Michael Ellis

1:49PM Saturday, I tweeted that Ellis had (surprisingly) not made it to the NSA.

6:40PM Scoop by @nakashimae: Acting SecDef Miller orders NSA to install Ellis on Saturday.

Read 7 tweets
14 Jan

"The presence of so many watch-listed individuals in one place — without more robust security measures ... — is another example of the intelligence failures preceding last week’s fatal assault that sent lawmakers running for their lives."

2. #WhereIsWray

@AshaRangappa_: "Perhaps the most notable part of the update was who wasn't giving it. The top officials from Justice and the FBI -- Acting Attorney General Jeffrey Rosen and Director Christopher Wray -- weren't there."

3. #WhereIsWray

FBI "didn't produce a bulletin" for Jan. 6 saying "doing so might run afoul of First Amendment free speech protections"

"But...this didn't stop...FBI from issuing intelligence bulletins ahead of mostly peaceful demonstrations" for BLM.

Read 5 tweets
12 Jan
McConnell "has made clear in private discussions that he believes now is the moment to move on the weakened lame duck."

He "has told associates he believes President Trump committed impeachable offenses and that he is pleased that Democrats are moving to impeach him."

2. Biden asked McConnell if could confirm nominees and hold impeachment trial at same time.

"Far from avoiding the topic of impeaching Mr. Trump, Mr. McConnell said it was a question for the Senate parliamentarian, and promised Mr. Biden a quick answer."

3. Within moments of the news on McConnell

@RepJohnKatko becomes first House Republican to acknowledge he will vote to impeach Trump.

Read 10 tweets
12 Jan
Armed groups plotting against the inauguration and statehouses are propelled by the myth that the election was stolen, and that they're acting in support of Trump.

It is on Republicans in Congress and Trump's circle to immediately and clearly reverse the lies about the election.
2. Aspects of the specific threats outlined in this harrowing overnight report by @MEPFuller are now being corroborated.

3 @ConorLambPA:

"They're talking about 4,000 armed patriots to surround the capitol and prevent any Democrat from going in. They have published rules of engagement. Meaning, when you shoot and when you don't. So this is an organized group that has a plan"
Read 4 tweets
12 Jan
This advisor sounds like a good first-hand witness for the prosecution:

“The president himself was busy enjoying the spectacle. Trump watched with interest, buoyed to see that his supporters were fighting so hard on his behalf, one close adviser said.”

2. “The Twitter missive was insufficient, and the president had not wanted to include the final instruction to ‘stay peaceful.’”
3. “A small group of aides ... was imploring Trump to speak out against the violence. Meadows’s staff had prompted him to go see the president, with one aide telling the chief of staff before he entered the Oval Office, ‘They are going to kill people.’”
Read 5 tweets

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