In the summer of 2018, the US had leverage on Saudi Arabia and the UAE and was able to stop a military offensive on Hudaydah that many in the humanitarian community worried would lead to many preventable deaths.
The US currently lacks leverage with the Houthis, and as a result it is unlikely that the US will be able to halt the Houthi offensive on Marib, which has been ongoing - in fits and starts - since early 2020.
One of the key questions now is: can the US, at this late stage of the war in Yemen, create leverage to influence Houthi decision making?
I think the US can (although admittedly this is much easier said than done). But I think the US has a number of carrots and sticks in its tool box that, while perhaps not enough to end the war, could certainly alter internal Houthi calculations.

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More from @gregorydjohnsen

10 Feb
The current UN Security Council Resolution on Yemen (2511) expires on February 26. A good indication of where the Biden admin is headed in Yemen should be evident from what the US presses for in the new resolution.
Every UN resolution since 2015 has used UNSC Resolution 2216 as its basis. This, as many people including myself believe, is no longer a helpful framework.
(2216 essentially calls for unilateral Houthis surrender, which one can call for, but that doesn't mean it is likely to happen.) The situation on the ground has changed too much for 2216 to be continue as the framework.
Read 4 tweets
10 Feb
Thread on Yemen: There are a lot of important questions for the US to answer about Yemen in the near future. But from a strategic point of view perhaps the most important is: can Yemen be reconstituted as a single country?
If the answer is "yes" then that is what the US should work towards.
But if, as I fear, the answer is "no" then the US needs to do some serious thinking about what a fractured and broken country on the tip of the Arabian Peninsula alongside key shipping routes means for its national security and foreign policy.
Read 16 tweets
26 Jul 18
A quick thread on what is happening in and around Yemen and what it (might, maybe, possibly) means.
On Wednesday the Houthis attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, causing light damage to both ships.…
This came as the UN Special Envoy, Martin Griffiths, was in Sanaa meeting with the Houthis.
Read 8 tweets
12 Jun 18
A brief thread on Yemen, the Houthis, and how we got here
The first Houthi war starts in June 2004 when the Yemeni government under Ali Abdullah Saleh attempts to arrest Husayn Badr al-Din al-Houthi.
The first Houthi war ends in September 2004 when Husayn Badr al-Din al-Houthi is shot and killed in a cave in the north Yemeni governorate of Sadah.
Read 27 tweets

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