Democrats have nearly hit the floor in Tennessee -- the state's elasticity reflects the lean of many ancestrally D areas staying steady.
But Kentucky may not have finished its GOP slide yet, particularly in the ancestrally Democratic east, and the suburbs aren't moving that much
But Kentucky may not have finished its GOP slide yet, particularly in the ancestrally Democratic east, and the suburbs aren't moving that much
There's not really too much to save Democrats in Kentucky. Currently, the downballot picture for them is grim -- a strong snap towards the GOP is expected as the presidential results converge with those further down the ballot, while this has already largely happened in TN.
Unfortunately for them, the suburbs haven't moved too much -- you'd want to see a larger swing in Louisville, but that just isn't the case yet. Until that begins accelerating, there's nothing to prevent Democrats sliding further and further down in this state.
It's pretty obvious, of course, that the realignment hasn't trickled down all the way -- I mean, Andy Beshear *is* governor right now. But that's probably the last hurrah for Kentucky Democrats for a long while now, at least unless the urbanization of the state accelerates fast.
big thanks to @mattygaren for helping me make sense of the maps for both Tennessee and Kentucky
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