2) Obviously, this is quite an increase. 41% in a year is significant and concerning. It is in very different from North America, which have so far have not shown a youth increase. (Similarly, suicides in Japanese women skyrocketed whereas no change in North America/Europe)
/2
It's important to note that this number has been increasing sharply for a while, this is definitely amplified however.
As well, for whatever reason, the "10-19" suicide rate has NOT followed the trend of decreases that the general Japanese population has seen.
(note this is 10-19, not 10-17.5ish, which is the school population)
/4
So certainly, this is the "big flag" that will likely get lots of attention in the media, as "suicide in Japan" is a popular media targets as well as this being data that supports the moral panic around children and the pandemic. And this data DOES support that concern.
/5
With increasing rates prior to 2020, even the government itself is cautious about attributing causes, and there was significant disruption to children's BREAKS this year due to the first state of emergency. Japan accelerated return to school.
/6
So, this is what the data is.
I'd encourage caution about interpreting what it means *in Japan*, let alone what it means for Kids in European or North American systems.
Every nation so far that has reported its suicide rates for 2020, compared to previous years. No change since 2019 (but down from 2017).
Despite a global pandemic, no current evidence suggests a 2020 rise in suicides.
2/ There are VERY IMPORTANT NOTES to this data. If you do not understand these notes, you will not understand this data, and you should not analyse it AT ALL except "there is no evidence to suggest an increase in suicides in 2020." That's it for you!
3/ First, it is crucial to not compare between nations, because different agencies, reporting structures, and cultural factors will influence reported suicide rates. Malawi's 1.4/100k is not comparable to Canada's 12.3/100k. At all. Don't do it.
In the states and counties that have so far reported suicide numbers, for the months in which we have data, SUICIDE RATES DECREASED IN AMERICA IN 2020.
(every word in that sentence matters, and has to be fully understood)
2/ These numbers are NOT:
* an "estimate" of 2020 suicides.
* a prediction of what 2021 holds
* a guarantee that 2020 will overall show less suicides
3/ These numbers ARE:
* a comprehensive scan of all reported 2020 suicide numbers, to give a full picture of what has been reported without bias
A quick thread on being a suicidologist, and the absolutely humble knowledge that we can't predict anything yet with all the expertise, computing power, and variables in the world:
"Follow the data, do not get ahead of it."
/1
When the pandemic started, many of the interviewed experts only had 2018 data showing that rates of suicide were increasing. They used that information in March 2020 and April 2020 to say "it was increasing before and it will get worse now"
/2
Meanwhile the actual statistics for 2019 came out around December and guess what, 2019s rate had fallen. So every expert, opining on TV, online, print, even in scientific articles, didn't know that one of the foundations for their argument fall away.
/3
There is no evidence to support an increased rate of suicide during COVID.
Nova Scotia Added (trimmed to September for stability).
2/ The best way to interpret this is "in the provinces reported so far, with the months so far, it is unlikely there will be an increase in Canadian suicides, and a decrease is most likely."
3/ I know the 2020 numbers will creep up slightly, I strongly doubt the lag will overcome -12%, but its not impossible. It is, however, quite obvious that a significant increase is not going to occur in these provinces.
1/ My first estimate for USA Suicide Rates in 2020 is available. This scan represents my best effort to capture every reported number.
Though the final rate for 2020 will likely creep up due to lag, it is unlikely to go past 2019 levels.
*THE SUICIDE RATE HAS NOT INCREASED*
2/ Rather than reading this as proof of decrease, I would encourage all reporting/sharing this number to read this as "evidence that a significant increase across America is unlikely." I have done my best to estimate data lag, but it will likely head closer to even.
3/ This is an apples-to-apples comparison. Alaska 2019 Jan-Sep is compared to Alaska 2020 Jan-Sep. Because of this, as more data comes in, both the 2019 AND 2020 rates will change.
1/ My first estimate for USA Suicide Rates in 2020 is available. This scan represents my best effort to capture every reported number.
Though the final rate for 2020 will likely creep up due to lag, it is unlikely to go past 2019 levels.
*THE SUICIDE RATE HAS NOT INCREASED*
2/ Rather than reading this as proof of decrease, I would encourage all reporting/sharing this number to read this as "evidence that a significant increase across America is unlikely." I have done my best to estimate data lag, but it will likely head closer to even.
3/ This is an apples-to-apples comparison. Alaska 2019 Jan-Sep is compared to Alaska 2020 Jan-Sep. Because of this, as more data comes in, both the 2019 AND 2020 rates will change.