As a lead indicator, this feels significant ahead of lockdown easing. It is not that there has been a great surge of Covid19 infections. But if the rate of decline has slowed or stopped, as Zoe indicates, that shows quite how hard it is to get prevalence down to trivial...
levels. Most official data shows infections, hospitalisations and deaths are all falling. But there are signs, I am told, that progress is slower in areas of deprivation, the areas where infections were also relatively higher last summer (such as Leicester, Bolton and
Blackburn). If these poorer areas are the ones that stay more locked down in coming months, while the rest of country returns to relative normal, that would be the opposite of “levelling up”. And the sense of unfairness would be increased since these are often areas with...
larger South Asian communities. So what the PM’s road-out-of lockdown paper says on Monday about measures to prevent a widening health and freedoms gap between rich and poor parts of the UK - if it says anything at all - will really matter.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Robert Peston

Robert Peston Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Peston

2 Feb
.@ProfCalumSemple said something highly significant on @BBCr4today this morning: “The mutation of most concern, which we call E484k, has also occurred spontaneously in the new Kent strain in parts of the country too”. He is saying that the Kent strain, which has run rife
here, has already mutated further, to resemble the Brazilian strain that has caused considerable anxiety, because it is thought to be more resistant to the vaccine than the Kent and original strains. What Semple did not say, because he was not asked, is how many cases of...
this new quasi Brazilian British mutation have been found and where they have been found. But I assume these will be the big questions for today.
Read 5 tweets
29 Jan
The EU is arguably playing a self-harming game in potentially restricting vaccine exports to the UK as a tit for tat for the inability of AstraZeneca to supply the 80m doses it ordered by the end of March. First of all this looks like unedifying EU sour grapes that the UK, out
of the EU, moved earlier to place vaccine contracts and will soon be self-sufficient in vaccines. Second it risks damaging the reputation of the EU as a place where multinationals can securely invest, because it is blowing up the supply chains of two big American companies...
with EU operations, Pfizer and Moderna. The UK, desperate for inward investment, will look relatively more attractive as a haven for foreign capital. Third, it risks converting the UK's many Brexit sceptics into reluctant Brexit converts, because it is conspicuous that...
Read 4 tweets
29 Jan
When any case of the South African Covid19 strain turns up in the UK - and “dozens” have turned up according to government officials and scientists - a massive and aggressive old-fashioned system of contact tracing kicks into action (knocking on doors, taking statements...
about who has been in contact with the infected person, rapid testing of contacts). So far “at least one case” of the SA strain has been identified with no “obvious” link back to someone who imported it. In other words it is indicative of - as yet - limited...
community transmission. Obviously the good news is that the spread of the SA strain will be constrained by the lockdown. The more depressing news is that the arrival of the strain shows the risks of easing lockdown prematurely. The danger “will be greatest as we...
Read 4 tweets
29 Jan
You can download the AstraZeneca vaccines contract with the EU here. The most interesting bit is the definition of "best reasonable efforts" to deliver the doses. ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…
"Best reasonable efforts" is defined as: "in the case of AstraZeneca, the activities and degree of effort that a company of similar size with a similarly-sized infrastructure and similar resources as AstraZeneca would undertake or use...
"in the development and manufacture of a
vaccine at the relevant stage of development or commercialization having regard to the urgent need for a vaccine to end a global pandemic which is resulting in
serious public health issues, restrictions on personal freedoms and...
Read 5 tweets
26 Jan
The important difference between AstraZeneca's relationship with the UK and with the EU, and the reason it has fallen behind schedule on 50m vaccine doses promised to the EU, is that the UK agreed the deal with AZ a full three months before the EU did - which gave...
AZ an extra three months to sort out manufacturing and supply problems relating to the UK contract (there were plenty of problems). Here is the important timeline. In May AZ reached agreement with Oxford and the UK government to make and supply the vaccine. In fact Oxford...
had already started work on the supply chain. The following month AZ reached a preliminary agreement with Germany, the Netherlands, France and Italy, a group known as the Inclusive Vaccine Alliance, based on the agreement with the UK. The announcement was 13 June. BUT the EU...
Read 9 tweets
22 Jan
The government's New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (or Nervtag) has concluded that the new Covid-19 strain may be a bit more lethal than the existing strain. I've spoken to the influential Nervtag member, Prof Neil Ferguson (@neil_ferguson)...
about this. He has given me this statement: "it is a realistic possibility that the new UK variant increases the risk of death, but there is considerable remaining uncertainty. Four groups - Imperial, LSHTM, PHE and Exeter - have looked at the relationship between people...
testing positive for the variant vs old strains and the risk of death. That suggests a 1.3-fold increased risk of death. So for 60 year-olds, 13 in 1000 might die compared with 10 in 1000 for old strains. The big caveat is that we only know which strain people were infected...
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!