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Laura Rozen

17 Feb, 9 tweets, 3 min read

Scooplet from me: Biden could tell Munich security forum on Friday plans to reenter Iran nuclear deal. diplomatic.substack.com/p/source-biden…

But some Iran experts fear an announcement is not enough to get Iran to suspend plans to reduce some IAEA access next week. diplomatic.substack.com/p/source-biden…

"Any kind of declaratory policy is not going to be enough"...Without some action associated with the words, the Iranian government will “not have enough maneuvering space...They still need more than that.” diplomatic.substack.com/p/source-biden…

Merkel, in a call to Rouhani today, "reiterated that the German government, together with the other JCPoA partners, has a high interest in preserving the nuclear agreement," and urged Iran to send positive signals to support diplomacy diplomatic.substack.com/p/source-biden…

Short of more significant signals from new US admin, Iran signalling could revert to pre-JCPOA levels of cooperation with the IAEA, in addition to quitting Additional Protocol.
diplomatic.substack.com/p/source-biden…

If you are interested in the diplomacy on this, consider subscribing diplomatic.substack.com/p/source-biden…

While there is more momentum on the US-European diplomacy on Iran, the question is if it is enough to avert "going off a cliff" next week. And short of Biden issuing an executive order and some economic gesture, some experts fear it is not diplomatic.substack.com/p/source-biden…

Biden is supposed to virtually address the Munich Security Forum on Friday (Feb. 19) at about 11:15 A.M. DC time. He is also due to attend a virtual meeting of the G-7 world leaders hosted by Boris Johnson Friday diplomatic.substack.com/p/source-biden…

@JeffRathke

"The Germans are keen on getting the [Iran] deal back in place,” @JeffRathke said. diplomatic.substack.com/p/source-biden…

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More from @lrozen

Laura Rozen

@lrozen

19 Feb

🧵 Biden in speech to Munich Sec. Conf today “will communicate that we look forward to engaging in diplomacy. We are keen to sit down and hear what the Iranians have to say. We want to come up with a diplomatic solution to the nuclear program and let’s get to work. 1/

“With EU invitation..., think we have a path forward to return to nuclear diplomacy that puts us on a positive path,” a senior US administration official said yesterday. 2/

He won’t be getting into specific timetables. Overall message is about America is back, and how democracies have innate advantages and need to invest in those sources of their strengths and work together to handle the challenges they all confront. Speech at 11:15 am DC time

Read 4 tweets

Laura Rozen

@lrozen

18 Feb

US has removed travel restrictions on diplomatic personnel assigned to the Iran mission to the UN imposed by the Trump admin, & circulated a letter to all members of UN Security Council rescinding Trump admin declaration of snapback sanctions on Iran, State Dept officials say

The US has also indicated it would accept the EU invitation to a meeting of Iran deal members to try to begin talks on how to resume a compliance for compliance deal, State Department officials said in call just now.

"If invited, we would be prepared to be there, with the goal of coming together to sit down and see what could be prolonged track of trying to get back where both US and Iran come back into compliance. That is not going to happen without a meeting....

Read 8 tweets

Laura Rozen

@lrozen

18 Feb

🧵From US SecState/E3 FM joint statement: “The E3 welcomed the prospect of a U.S. and Iranian return to compliance with the JCPOA. The E3 and the United States affirmed their determination to then strengthen the JCPOA...” called on Iran not to take any additional steps...

The E3 & US affirmed shared objective of Iran’s return to full compliance..Blinken reiterated that, as Pres. Biden has said, if Iran comes back into strict compliance w/its commitments under JCPOA, US will do the same & is prepared to engage in discussions w/Iran toward that end

In this context, the E3 & US called on Iran not to take any additional steps, in part. wrt the suspension of the Additional Protocol & to any limitations on IAEA verification activities in Iran. The E3 & US united in underlining dangerous nature of a decision to limit IAEA access

Read 9 tweets

Laura Rozen

@lrozen

16 Feb

US Yemen envoy Tim Lenderking, asked if will hold direct talks with Iran on it, says he will leave that to others to discuss. UN envoy Griffiths just back from there, Lenderking discussed with him, Iran has bn playing unhelpful role, opportunity for Iran to put best foot forward

What would Iran showing support for Yemen peace effort look like? Lenderking: The main thing is to stop the support for lethal activity by the houthis
their ability to use uavs, missiles, plant mines, in waterways...
those things are really antithetical to peace effort in yemen

Lenderking: And if the Houthis want to state their good will, they will push away from Iran.
This is something they have stated.
They want to be seen as independent.

Read 4 tweets

Laura Rozen

@lrozen

13 Feb

McConnell: Jan. 6 was a disgrace.

McConnell: did this because they had been fed lies, falsehoods, by the most powerful man on earth. ...There is no question that Pres. Trump is practically and morally responsible for provoking the events of the day

He is making a case for guilty, though he voted not guilty.

Read 11 tweets

Laura Rozen

@lrozen

13 Feb

Raskin cites his daughter Hannah saying she was saddened by evidence presented of a man, a Trump supporter, who had left a note for his children saying he might not come home from the Jan. 6 event, he was prepared to die fighting for Trump.
says his children are better than him

Raskin cites his late son, Tommy, “it’s hard to be human.”

repraskin.medium.com/statement-of-c…

Raskin says he was often a Sunday school truant, but he was struck by this teaching: “thou shall not follow a multitude to do evil.”

Tells Senators of this vote, This is almost certainly how you will be remembered by history.

Read 4 tweets

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