Thread by @peregreine

1) Bulls vs. Bears Thread: A very bullish look: "The fact these extreme breadth readings keep pouring in as the rally progresses suggests we continue to be in a healthy market that is being driven by broadening participation." allstarcharts.com/february-confe…

2) "Most importantly, this is strong evidence that we are most likely at the beginning of a new bull market, not the end of an old one."

3) From the same link: "Speaking of this whole global growth and reflationary thesis we see playing out, here’s another development to add to the above list… New record highs for Emerging Markets $EEM." (Chart from All-Star Charts piece linked above.)

4) FT Bitcoin Bulls vs. Bear: archive.is/1EhqO

“We are potentially at the birth of a new asset class,” argues Duncan MacInnes, a fund manager at Ruffer, a traditional, conservative UK investment group that raised eyebrows when it placed a $600m bet on bitcoin last year.

5) Same FT article above:“Bitcoin is emerging from the shadows, being co-opted by establishment institutions and becoming a legitimate alternative asset for investment portfolios.”

6) Bitcoin Bear: “The recent spike in their prices looks less like a trend and more like a speculative mania — an atmosphere in which one high-profile tweet is enough to trigger a sudden jump in price,” Tim Lane, the Bank of Canada’s deputy governor, noted in a speech this week.

7) Woah! FT link above: "Chamath Palihapitiya, a prominent venture capitalist, recently ruefully revealed that he used bitcoin to buy a $1.6m Lake Tahoe property in 2016 — the same amount of bitcoin would today be worth $128m."

8) Michael Batnick, CFA: "Over the last year, the micro-cap index, representing the smallest publicly traded stocks, is outperforming the S&P 500 by three times."

theirrelevantinvestor.com/2021/02/12/how…

9) Batnick again: "I think it’s more accurate to say that the stock market is not the economy today. The stock market is the economy in 6-12 months. At least I hope that’s what this chart is saying. Otherwise, shit, this really might end badly."

10) Bullish Ben Carson: "Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Facebook now make up around 18% of the overall U.S. stock market1 in terms of market cap but nearly 25% in terms of profit.

awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/02/the-bi…

11) Carson again: "But if you’re a doomsayer who is predicting some massive 50-60% crash a la the end of the dot-com bubble then you’re implicitly saying these huge tech stocks will crash as well.

Never say never but . . . "

12) " . . . these businesses are so much more high quality than anything investors saw at the tail end of the dot-com bubble in the late-1990s."

13) Lastly, this Ben Thompson gift is the best piece in this thread and I encourage you to bookmark it to read if you don't have 15 minutes now.

p.s. Have a good cup of coffee to sip during this damn fine read. Slow down. Take this in: stratechery.com/2021/mistakes-…

14) I'm not even going to cut and paste from that "Mistakes and Memes" piece. It expanded my curiousity & thinking, & I need a second read to take in more.

stratechery.com/2021/mistakes-…

15) If I had teachers like Ben Thompson in my youth, I might have never dropped out of college after coming back from a tour in the Army during the Vietnam era. Ben Thompson, I'm coming to find you on Twitter. I respect your approach in keeping yourself honest.

16) Found him! @benthompson

17) Let's add this chart, a reminder, the Fed is the lightshow for markets, which it bathes in green:

https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1361999083657961474