1) $PTON has turned bearish. A few days ago I was agnostic; now, were I trading this, I would have gone short this name two days ago. Extended trendline (thin line) shows busted horizontal and trendline support & trading under 50 day moving average.
2) Now that's just the chart look. The insider sales for $PTON since just last December (and especially in the past 10 days) tell you a story, and it is not bullish. Every time an insider vests options, they turn around and sell their shares. I don't see bullish buys here:
3) Be aware of product delays (chip shortages are real), and Buy Now Pay Later - although that is off-loaded to the firm Affirm (IIRC). Then, insider sales, and competition. $NLS and $LULU are not asleep during this exercise from home quarantine.
4) To me, this "moat" appears to be slowly evaporating. And with Insider sales hitting before the earnings report, somebody, well entrenched, knows something. Formerly agnostic, now bearish on $PTON doesn't mean I hate you longs. It just means, yeah, I'll trade this for scalps.
5) I.E., I'll trade this long side when a base appears, but I don't see that yet. And if I trade it long again, I'll NOT take gains in underlying. So, please, if you're long, don't try to engage with me. (The worst $PTON fanbois on Twitter bore the piss out of me.)
6) That said, if you're trading this short, be sure to watch that cliff this thing fell off. A few well-placed earnings upgrades could fire the grappling hooks over that $145 ledge, right? But for now, monitor to see if this freefalls down to $110ish horizontal.
7) This short thread is just to show you how I don't "fall in love" with stocks. I was looking for a breakout this week, but when it came it faded in 15 minutes, and now, after seeing the chart and looking at insider action, I'm bearish on this name. That's all.

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More from @peregreine

19 Feb
1) #PeregrineUpgrades Fri, 19 Feb 21

$CDE ROTH Capital Neutral → Buy $10

$CG Credit Suisse Neutral → Outperform $42

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$CNA Keefe Bruyette Mkt Perform → Outperform $52
2) #PeregrineUpgrades Fri, 19 Feb 21

$DXC BofA Securities Underperform → Neutral $27

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3) #PeregrineUpgrades Fri, 19 Feb 21

$NMRK Piper Sandler Neutral → Overweight $12

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Read 4 tweets
19 Feb
1) $OPK announced earnings Thu, 18 Feb 21, AMC

Profit: +.05 CENTS
+25.00% eBEAT
+13.40% rBEAT
Earnings Growth: +183.30% yoy
Revenue Growth: +120.40% yoy
2) 4400 Biscayne Boulevard
Miami, Florida
opko.com
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology
Employees: 6,096

Note: I live in the FL Keys and have never heard of this firm with over 6,096 employees?
3) DESCRIPTION
OPKO Health, Inc. engages in the provision of healthcare services. It operates through the following segments: Diagnostics, Pharmaceuticals, and Corporate. The Diagnostics segment include clinical laboratory operations of BioReference,as well as . . .
Read 25 tweets
19 Feb
1) $JMP just announced earnings AMC, Thu, 18 Feb 21

Before getting started, note this is very thinly traded, and yet yesterday, before earnings announced post-market, it traded 32 x its normal avg volume. So, today, I think we're going to see some madness in this name.
2) In a normal setting, yesterday's candlestick, called a "hanging man" would suggest the next day would be down. However, as always, an Earnings report can change everything on a dime. So, today, I'll follow to see how this all pans out and see if volume goes 100x. My bet? UP.
3) That said, let's "do it"

600 Montgomery Street, Suite 1100
San Francisco, California
jmpg.com
Sector: Financial
Industry: Investment Services
Employees: 209
Read 15 tweets
19 Feb
$QDEL on #PeregrineWatchlist after

18 Feb 21 AMC Earnings
Profit: $10.95 per share
+10.60% eBEAT
+0.20% rBEAT
Earnings Growth: +1,064.90% yoy
Revenue Growth: +431.70% yoy
2) 9975 Summers Ridge Road, Suite 200
San Diego, California
quidel.com
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Medical Supplies
Employees: 1,250
3) DESCRIPTION
Quidel Corp. engages in the development, manufacture and market of rapid diagnostic testing solutions. Its portfolio includes rapid immunoassays, cardiac immunoassays, specialized diagnostic solutions and molecular diagnostic solutions.
Read 18 tweets
18 Feb
1) $LGND on #PeregineWatchlist . . . already nibbling.

Last Earnings 3 Feb 21 BMO

Profit: $1.42 per share
+43.43% eBEAT
+29.00% rBEAT
Earnings Growth: +178.22% yoy
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San Diego, California
ligand.com
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology
Employees: 115
3) DESCRIPTION
Ligand Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company, which engages in the development and acquisition of technologies that help pharmaceutical companies to discover and develop medicines.
Read 33 tweets
18 Feb
1) Bulls vs. Bears Thread: A very bullish look: "The fact these extreme breadth readings keep pouring in as the rally progresses suggests we continue to be in a healthy market that is being driven by broadening participation." allstarcharts.com/february-confe…
2) "Most importantly, this is strong evidence that we are most likely at the beginning of a new bull market, not the end of an old one."
3) From the same link: "Speaking of this whole global growth and reflationary thesis we see playing out, here’s another development to add to the above list… New record highs for Emerging Markets $EEM." (Chart from All-Star Charts piece linked above.) Image
Read 17 tweets

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