I know COVID seems like it is subsiding. But the B117 variant is spreading. What we do now to stop it determines whether it takes over and fills hospitals again in 2 months.
1. We need all Americans to wear a high quality mask. Upgrading to one with a metal nose clip and a snug fit so it doesn't fall when you talk or leak so much out the sides--ideally a medical grade mask--is important. This variant is 30-50% more contagious than what we've faced.
2. We must keep avoiding socializing indoors in groups (eg >10 people). While overall COVID rates are falling, B117 variant is doubling every 10 days. It was 4.5% of all cases in Florida last week--and expected to be the majority in early March. sciencealert.com/uk-coronavirus…
3. This is not the time to take the foot off the pedal. We should not be opening restaurants, bars, gyms, and the like. And we need rapid approval of legislation to support them financially -- long overdue.
4. High risk workers must be protected. Most workplaces take needed measures but many still do not. E.g., Oregon reported just last week 102 workplaces with outbreaks of 5-740 cases--at warehouses, stores, fast food, clinics, prisons. Everywhere. oregon.gov/oha/covid19/Do…
Pfizer's move is indefensible. Yes, squeeze every dose we can. But cutting deliveries from 40M to 33M vials for the same price cannot be justified. Especially when many places lack the special "low dead space" syringes needed to get the "extra" dose. nytimes.com/2021/01/22/hea…
"The world’s largest syringe maker does not have the capacity to substantially increase U.S. supplies of specialty syringes needed to squeeze more doses from Pfizer's vaccine vials in the coming weeks, an executive said." reuters.com/article/us-hea…
This image was very helpful for me to understand the difference between low dead space syringes and needles from the standard ones. (Thanks Harm Reduction Journal and whomever thought to come up with such a publication.) harmreductionjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…
Key findings from the latest Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus poll.
1. Americans are more worried about COVID's impact on their health, job, and finances than since June. And for most, out of home activity is declining accordingly. axios.com/axios-ipsos-po…
2. Vaccine interest is up, with most now saying they are likely to take a COVID-19 vaccine if it public health officials say it is safe and effective (69%), has a 90%+ effectiveness rate (67%), or has been on the market a few months (65%). ipsos.com/en-us/news-pol…
3. A small minority of people (18%) are driving most of the indoor activity outside the home that drives spread. Only 44% of this group wear a mask when outside home and only 36% are very concerned about the virus. These are the folks (more male, <55, GOP) whose help we need.
Spoke to @MarketWatch and here are a few of the points I made:
- Today's election determines who's in charge Jan 20, but what happens with addressing the major surge of COVID19 cases and hospitalizations and with vaccines is being determined now. marketwatch.com/story/dr-gawan…
- If we get an effective vaccine, the big problem won't be hesitancy, but lack of supply and distribution resources forcing hard choices among priority groups.
- We will need a mass movement to back mask-wearing, far more testing, and open hospital data.
- And, finally, if Trump holds onto power, we cannot give up hope. We still have ways for states, Congress, and the public to fight the virus even if this administration won't. We still have ways to not let doctors and science become demonized.
.@moderna_tx says it will have 20M doses of its vaccine by Jan; @pfizer 30-40M. It’s unknown if either will work. But if one does, we may have enough for 10-20M people. (Remember, it’s 2 doses per person). qz.com/1924433/the-us…
We have 19M first responders and high-risk health care workers. For this group alone, we may already have shortages. And that’s without even getting to nursing home residents, the chronically ill, or essential workers.
.@casssunstein lays out the prisoner's dilemma that Democrats find themselves in with the GOP, but doesn't quite lay out what game theory has taught us about the best way to proceed: Generous Tit-for-Tat (or Tit-for-Tat with Forgiveness). 1/9 bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
This @Radiolab episode describes the 1960s tournament with computer programs vying with one another in a version of a Cuban Missile crisis to see if they could avoid escalating to Armageddon. Here were the algorithms. 2/9 wnycstudios.org/podcasts/radio…
Massive Retaliatory Strike: Cooperate until the first attack, then retaliate the rest of the time. Result: mostly Armageddon. 3/9
Masks work? YES. This is appalling. Atlas offers no explanation for the increasing mountain of evidence in support, and instead offers only a bizarre and incoherent paper. I don't know why the administration wants to die on this hill.
In my May article on the regimen hospitals have used to stop spread of COVID19 (hygiene, distancing, masks, and testing at least symptomatic people), I review the copious evidence to then on why masks work. newyorker.com/science/medica…
Since that article, numerous corroborating studies have come out. This comprehensive review lays out the strong laboratory evidence of the ability of surgical masks and cloth masks to prevent transmission. europepmc.org/article/PPR/PP…