Here is where I could see geoengineering playing a role: say, at some point in the future we have gotten our emissions under control, but climate sensitivity was high and we've locked in 2.5-3C warming even though we thought we would limit warming to 2C. 2/5
We discover some previously unknown planetary-scale climate feedback mechanism with hysteresis that will lead to substantial additional warming if temperatures remain >2.5C. We need to actively suck lots of CO2 from the atmosphere to get temperatures down to safe levels. 3/5
But it will take decades to get those systems up and running at the scale necessary to remove hundreds of gigatons of CO2. Geoengineering might be a short-term solution to suppress temperatures until CO2 removal can be achieved. 4/5
Thats a pretty unlikely scenario. But there are enough unknowns and uncertainties in the Earth's climate that its useful to have a way to temporary cool the planet in an emergency. Small scale research can at least tell us if its possible. 5/5
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There has been a lot of confusion over the drivers of the Texas blackouts. While more will become clear in the coming days, neither renewables nor insufficient gas capacity were the culprits. Rather, it was the lack of resiliency of to extreme cold conditions.
A thread: 1/9
Texas has seen an explosion of cheap wind power in recent years. Wind now produces around 20% of Texas' electricity. However, at the same time Texas has also been building a lot of gas capacity; gas generally works well with wind, able to quickly ramp up to fill in gaps. 2/
Because it is intermittent, the grid manager @ERCOT_ISO does not rely much on wind to meet extreme demand events such as the one we are experiencing right now. Rather, they have enough gas (and nuclear/coal) capacity on standby just in case high demand coincides with low wind. 3/
Much of the US is experiencing extreme cold temperatures. But we should not read too much into this when it comes to climate change; its both not an unusual day for global temperatures, and there is not much evidence that climate change is making cold extremes more common.
We can see that while the US and part of Russia are exceptionally cold at the moment, other parts of the world have much warmer than average temperatures. A warming world is still one with regional weather variability!
At the same time, there has been a strong decrease in the number of extreme cold events in many parts of the world. Today's event feels so extreme in part because its become much rarer in recent decades. (@RARohde has a good graph of this, but I can't seem to dig it up)
There has been a lot of discussion about negative emissions technologies (NETs) lately. While we need to be skeptical of assumed planetary-scale engineering and wary of moral hazard, we also need much greater RD&D funding to keep our options open. A quick thread: 1/10
Energy system models love NETs, particularly for very rapid mitigation scenarios like 1.5C (where the alternative is zero global emissions by 2040)! More problematically, they also like tons of NETs in 2C scenarios where NETs are less essential.
In model world the math is simple: very rapid mitigation is expensive today, particularly once you get outside the power sector, and technological advancement may make later NETs cheaper than near-term mitigation after a point. 3/10
Quite the tour-de-force from @Sammy_Roth on what would actually be needed to get California to 100% clean energy by 2045 and the somewhat-telling unwillingness to build fast and big enough today: latimes.com/business/story…
A few highlights: 1/9
In response to rolling blackouts this summer, CA is extending the life of its natural gas plants. At the same time, however, it is failing to invest in clean firm generation to ultimately replace the role that gas plays on the grid, "sowing the seeds for the next crisis” 2/9
The CPUC is planning to would make a relatively weak 2030 of 25% emission reductions as the basis for approving or rejecting new transmission lines, likely leading to a substantial underinvestment in the magnitude of transmission needed for deep decarbonization. 3/9
The National Academy of Sciences has a great new report on accelerating decarbonization of the US energy system, taking a deep look at what is needed to put us on track for net-zero by 2050. A few major takeaways: nap.edu/resource/25932… 1/5
1) Clean energy needs to scale up dramatically by 2030. This will require record-setting deployment of solar and wind technologies, get rid of all coal and some gas-fired power plants, and preserving operating nuclear plants and hydroelectric facilities where possible. 2/5
2) Zero-emission vehicles as 50% of new sales by 2030, prioritize heat pumps in homes and buildings (mandatory for most new construction) while increasing efficiency, start decarbonizing industrial processes/heat with low-carbon alternatives (hydrogen, CCS, adv nuclear) 3/5
Ten years ago I made a bet with @BigJoeBastardi; he thought that the world would cool, while I projected it would warm. We settled on a paid dinner for me each year 0.1C above the prior decade avg (2001-2010) and for him each year 0.1C below, using UAH.
He now owes me 5 dinners
I had originally suggested a $10k bet, based on the past warming trend continuing, as I outlined here: rankexploits.com/musings/2011/b…
Joe countered in the comments that he was not willing to wager $10k, but was happy to make a bet around dinners. He suggested using UAH satellite troposphere data instead of surface temperature data, and making it relative to the prior decade's average: