Thread by @AlexEpstein

An energy engineer on @curryja's blog has written the best account of the TX blackouts so far.

It confirms my analysis that "the root cause of the TX blackouts is...policy that has prioritized the adoption of unreliable wind/solar energy."

THREAD

judithcurry.com/2021/02/18/ass…

https://twitter.com/AlexEpstein/status/1361691271199264770

"Who is responsible for providing adequate capacity in Texas during extreme conditions? The short answer is no one."

"[ERCOT doesn't] ensure that the resources can deliver power under adverse conditions, they don’t require that generators have secured firm fuel supplies, and they don’t make sure the resources will be ready and available to operate."

"Unlike all other US energy markets, Texas does not even have a capacity market. By design they rely solely upon the energy market. This means that entities....do not see any profit from having stand by capacity ready to help out in emergencies."

"There is no significant long term motivation for entities to ensure extra capacity just in case it may be needed during extreme conditions. Entities that might make that gamble theoretically can profit when markets skyrocket, but such approaches require tremendous patience..."

"Andrew Barlow, Head of the PUC in Texas... is quoted as follows, 'Legislators have shown strong support for the energy-only market that has fueled the diversification of the state’s electricity generation fleet...making Texas the national leader in installed wind generation.'"

"Traditional fossil fuel generation has...inherent capacity value. That means such resources generally can be operated with a high degree of reliability and dependability. With incentives they can be operated so that they will likely be there when needed."

"Wind and solar are intermittent resources, working only under good conditions for wind and sun, and as such do not have capacity value unless they are paired with costly battery systems."

"If you want to achieve a higher level of penetration from renewables, dollars will have to be funneled away from traditional resources towards renewables....Rewarding resources for offering capacity advantages effectively penalizes renewables."

"Texas has stacked the deck to make wind and solar more competitive than they could be in a system that better recognizes the value of dependable resources which can supply capacity benefits."

"An energy only market helps accomplish the goal of making wind and solar more competitive. Except capacity value is a real value. Ignoring that, as Texas did, comes with real perils."

"In TX now we are seeing the extreme shortages and market price spikes that can result from devaluing capacity....having more intermittent resources which do not provide capacity...owners and potential owners of resources which could provide capacity are not incentivized to..."

"Having a strong technical knowledge of the power system along with some expertise in finance, rates and costs can help one see the folly of a variety of policies adopted to support many of today’s wind and solar projects. Very few policy makers possess anything close..."

"A simpler approach to understanding the ineffectiveness of unbridled advocacy for wind and solar is to look at those areas which have heavily invested in these intermittent resources and achieved higher penetration levels of such resources."

"Typically electric users see significant overall increases in the cost of energy delivered to consumers. Additionally reliability problems tend to emerge in these systems. Texas, a leader in wind, once again is added to the experience gained in California, Germany and the UK..."

"Anyone can look at Texas and observe that fossil fuel resources could have performed better in the cold. If those who owned the plants had secured guaranteed fuel, Texas would have been better off. More emergency peaking units would be a great thing to have on hand."

"The incentive for gas generation to do the right thing was taken away by Texas’s deliberate energy only market strategy. The purpose of which was to aid the profitability of intermittent wind and solar resources and increase their penetration levels."

Thanks to the anonymous (and brilliant) engineer who wrote this explanation. Make sure to read the whole explanation, "Assigning Blame for the Blackouts in Texas," on Dr. @curryja's excellent website--which has a lot of other excellent content.

judithcurry.com/2021/02/18/ass…