#2 - No. A simple google search shows that SARS-Cov-2 is clearly not geographically restricted.
#3 - No (for now). We are not entirely sure yet. Could be a yes, could be a no. BUT, so far everything points toward the vaccines not providing the ability to avoid contagion, just to diminish the lethality and symptoms of the disease.
#4 - No. If asymptomatic is infectious we have no easy way to discover that someone is carrying the virus.
How many did you really score right?
Have you seen this set of questions before?
My mistake here, this is YES
If you have, you know that this is the checklist for assessing if it is possible to achieve virus eradication. If you haven't, now you know ;) asm.org/Articles/2020/…
For eradication to be possible, you need to say Yes to all except #1 (I wrote the positive, not the negative)
Eradication: “permanent reduction to zero of the worldwide incidence of infection caused by a specific agent as a result of deliberate efforts.”
Do you think SARS-Cov-2 eradication (also known now by the ZeroCovid marketing name) viable?
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1/ By popular demand I was going to do a deep dive into the European CDC Face Mask recommendation study. Well, it may end but be a bit shallow. There is not much depth to be diving into. ecdc.europa.eu/en/publication…
2/ The study follows a usual form with clear inclusion and exclusion criteria (which is good). It uses the GRADE framework to ascertain the evidence and generate a recommendation. That is among the best we got in the evidence based land.
3/ The number of studies included is 'interesting'. With a n=118 we would expect to get a nice body of clear cut evidence to support the recommendation.
1/ What does this mean for research? For example, while my twitter followed has increased absurdly since early last year because of my work on data analysis on SARS-Cov-2, I was mostly known for my work in performance analysis.
2/ What performance analysis teaches you is that you run experiments of the type 'If P then Q' every single day, several times a day.
For ex. "If I change this data structure then I will be able to obtain better performance by accessing memory contiguously"
3/ Now, when you enter into the realm of 'how the physical CPU is working' then becomes far more difficult. The reason behind that is that with that many moving parts noise is very difficult to separate from the signal.
1/ Let's look at this paper: "Influenza Virus Aerosols in the Air and Their Infectiousness" from 2014 (we cannot claim this was unknown). We know now that we have a new kid on the block now, ready to challenge Influenza for supremacy in the transmissibility metric.
2/ So there were these guys that actually infected people with Influenza to measure how infectious it was. That is a 'challenge study', this is no 'model' this is actual humans. And they found, that with as much as 3000 copies you get it.
3/ Another study actually measured how many particles an adult would inhale in 1 hour given the concentrations found on a health center, a day-care center, and airplanes.
1/ I was sent this paper. You know I have disregard it before because the filtering mechanic was really not significative for the type of airflow conditions imposed by masks. How wrong I was on not looking deeper.
2/ I have been told by @Kevin_McKernan that you always have to look for "Where is Waldo?" in this type of studies. The first interesting fact comes from Table 1. Each experiment has different experimental setups, that is good enough to disqualify in my book.
3/ But then I skipped to Table 4. Mind you, almost none were statistically significative. But remember Table 1. So you see a correlation there?
1/ I went for ice cream. The cashier asked me to put my face mask on. I said: "Fine. I evaluated the evidence myself and it's bad. If you want the safety theater, let's do it (taking my facemask out of my dirty pocket), BUT, first I have to insist for you to use yours properly".
2/ This is what people don't get. You are in the shop, you take it out when no other people are around. If they were infected, BANG, there are virions everywhere floating around anyways. Safety, yeah right.
3/ So if an actual vulnerable (who thinks his nifty masks would protect him) arrives, he will inhale all those virions AND also some of them go straight to the outer layer. If it is a cloth one, then he is undoubtedly gonna inhale aerosolized virus over time.
1/ This is what many forget, if you say something is wrong you have the higher ground. Find a counterexample, it's the easiest thing to do. Though many fail in such an easy endevour and claim misinformation. Don't be like that, provide evidence (counterexample) for your claims.
2/ I am not saying this lightly. I have received many: "that claim is absurd" from epidemiologists, MDs and health professionals about the claims on our papers. But when we asked for the evidence.
3/ come on its easy, find a counterexample. I tend to do that a lot on discussions, after claim X my response is always explain to me Y contradicts that claim. A working theory to claim evidence status must explain the corner cases. You start there, not on the easy stuff.