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David H. Montgomery

@dhmontgomery

21 Feb

Newly administered #COVID19 vaccine doses in Minnesota are flat again today. No drop YET from recent disrupted supply. BUT more and more of doses administered have been *second shots*, with first doses declining steadily the past few days.

When I say “disrupted supply,” this is what I mean. (The polar vortex has wreaked havoc on supply.)

Around 13% of Minnesotans have received at least one #COVID19 vaccine dose, including nearly 40% of seniors.

Read 4 tweets

David H. Montgomery

@dhmontgomery

19 Feb

A pretty good day for newly reported #COVID19 vaccinations in Minnesota, as Minnesota crosses the 1 million doses-given threshold, while the daily average gets back up to 30K/day, almost where we were in late January.

Despite the improvement, at this pace MN would only be able to vaccinate about 80% of adults by sometime in September. To get done by summer, MN needs to be doing 40K or 50K shots per day, or more.

No sign YET of a falloff in vaccine pace due to the supply delays caused by winter weather this week. At least some dip is probably coming in the days to come — we just might not be seeing it yet due to reporting lags.

Read 7 tweets

David H. Montgomery

@dhmontgomery

19 Feb

@MPRnews

For @MPRnews, @gundersondan looks at Mahnomen County, which has vaccinated 85% of residents 65+, & more than 30% of people 16-65, both among the best in MN. It’s due to collaboration by @mnhealth & the White Earth Nation, whose borders encompass Mahnomen: mprnews.org/story/2021/02/…

@MPRnews

@MPRnews @gundersondan @mnhealth Mahnomen really stands out when you plot out the data, along with Cook County (the state’s highest vaccination rate) and Olmsted County (where Mayo Clinic-based health workers have unsurprisingly led to a high rate of under-65 vaccination):

@MPRnews

@MPRnews @gundersondan @mnhealth The map of the ratio between vaccinated seniors and vaccinated non-seniors in MN counties falls into that subgenre of maps I like to call, “Maps that really just show where the Mayo Clinic is”:

Read 6 tweets

David H. Montgomery

@dhmontgomery

27 Jan

Today is another good news day for MN’s #COVID19 stats. Most strikingly, more than 22,000 newly reported vaccinations, against fewer than *1,000* last Wednesday.

Minnesota’s weekly average vaccination pace is up to nearly 20,000 per day, nearly double where it was 6 days ago.

Now, 20,000 doses per day is not nearly enough. At this rate it’d take a full calendary year, until January 2022, to vaccinate 80% of MN adults. BUT Minnesota is finally moving in the right direction on this metric.

Meanwhile, all the metrics tracking the pandemic’s progress in Minnesota are also headed in the right direction. For example, there were 18 newly reported #COVID19 deaths today, vs. 34 last Wednesday and 50 the week before that. Average is down to 21 deaths/day and falling.

Read 9 tweets

David H. Montgomery

@dhmontgomery

26 Jan

The biggest news out of today’s #COVID19 data is a rise in administered vaccine doses of more than 17,000.

Last Tuesday had fewer than 6,000 newly reported doses.

Minnesota is in the midst of its first sustained and significant rise in COVID vaccination pace to date.

Lots of vaccine providers are still not meeting the state’s 90% threshold, but remember this is a 7-day average — if a provider turned things around today, it could take a while for this stat to catch up.

I’ll track this as a time series once we have more days of data.

Newly reported #COVID19 deaths are essentially flat week-over-week, but that’s not a big deal — Tuesday data is always weird, and hard to draw solid conclusions from. The long-term trend is still continued improvement.

Read 5 tweets

David H. Montgomery

@dhmontgomery

25 Jan

Just 3 newly reported #COVID19 deaths in Minnesota today. It’s only the 26th time since MN’s first COVID death that 3 or fewer deaths were reported, though 14 of those times were on Mondays, which typically have low reporting levels.

The 7-day average is down to 23 deaths/day.

Minnesota’s #COVID19 deaths are down both in and out of long-term care facilities, but we’re not YET seeing a disproportionate plunge in LTC deaths as a result of vaccinations.

Newly reported cases continue to decline, but at a slowing rate. The 7-day average is now just over 1,200 new cases per day. It’s possible MN’s case volume is bottoming out.

Read 6 tweets

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