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David Henig Profile picture
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21 Feb, 5 tweets, 1 min read
It occurs to me that we may all have been premature in declaring the Conservative Party wars over the EU to be finished.
While there is a strong part of the Conservatives that actively want the UK to attack the EU, supported by the media, but contrary to global realities, any move towards friendly relations will be tough. But hostility will cost because of those realities.
And Ireland is the microcosm. Where there are real issues, no easy answers, and a US and EU expecting the UK government to behave in a constructive manner meaning in practical terms checks between GB and NI.
But not just Ireland. Johnson's generally reasonable foreign policy speech on Friday has a huge EU hole. Uniquely in the world we aren't giving the EU full diplomatic recognition. The trade department doesn't cover the EU. And so on...
And so it seems the EU is just as toxic in the Conservative Party as at any time in the last 30 years. A nationalist hatred of an integration project versus a pragmatic business centred engagement splitting two core elements.

Brexit. Expect more sequels.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
22 Feb
Simple reality that the closer the relationship between UK and EU regulations, the fewer checks between GB and Northern Ireland.

Trouble is that doesn't suit the UK government or DUP politics. ft.com/content/5a4c0c…
Worth pointing out the UK government says that it has no intention of lowering food standards, but also doesn't want to bind those food standards to reduce trade barriers. You can spot the inconsistency in the time it takes to say "UK US trade deal"
The prospect of a UK-US trade deal has so far inspired the Internal Market Bill demonstrating limits of devolution to Scots, and led to greater barriers to Great Britain - Northern Ireland trade. It could yet be the most politically significant trade agreement since EU-Ukraine.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
22 Feb
The UK is the world's second largest services exporter. Keeping that going requires flexibility on immigration and work permit rules, and a stable regulatory environment. Free Trade Agreements won't help much.

In other words Sam does not agree with UK government policy...
It is a particularly useful report to show to diehard Brexit supporters dismissing objections to government policy from experts. Because it shows there are positive options, they just aren't the ones being pursued right now. cer.eu/publications/a…
I personally would like to see the UK go further in thinking about services, considering how you could create a greater assumption of open trade even outside of a single market concept. But it will always run into a Home Office problem.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
20 Feb
A Brexit story in three parts, and one multiple choice question at the end. First, the UK side of the story

"unacceptable that the European Commission has changed its position"
The EU response... "this is not new and is not a surprise to the UK administration"
The impact on those who used to sell to the EU... "The UK export of LBM [live bivalve molluscs] to the EU is worth around £15m"
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
20 Feb
I'm afraid that trying to reconcile hard Brexit and no barriers between GB and NI unionism through inventing new forms of borders has been, is, and will be a doomed enterprise. The report on which this article is based is no solution. irishtimes.com/opinion/david-…
I have been sympathetic to unionist concerns about Brexit and Northern Ireland throughout the process. I opposed the original Northern Ireland backstop for this reason. I thought an all-UK backstop was better. But the DUP joined Conservatives in thinking this not Brexit enough.
My sympathy is lessened by language about annexation by the EU, and also the failure to recognise that the post-Brexit settlement affects both communities, both East-West and North-South trade. It makes me think the author's hatred for the EU is dominating his approach.
Read 7 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
20 Feb
Thread, particularly this. In time our two agreements with the EU will come to be seen very badly, and blame will be apportioned. Right now Brexiteers try to blame PM May for the NI Protocol. Not convincingly.
Reason for problems of both NI Protocol and EU FTA are fundamentally the same. Unrealistic negotiating position not compromised until too late, by which time it was take EU deal or not. And the PM preferred to take deal, claim victory, defer consequences.
Government is very lucky that a sympathetic press and commentariat is not yet calling out problems with the EU deal. But the management of substandard deals and public opinion, along with international relations, is going to be very difficult.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
19 Feb
Lots of praise going round for this PM speech to the Munich security conference. A well crafted piece which returns to traditional UK foreign policy concerns. It just doesn't match well to actions not least with regard to European relations. So what gives? gov.uk/government/spe…
And that's a serious question by the way. The UK can have the kind of North Atlantic centred foreign policy the PM describes, but not while denying recognition to the EU Ambassador and pursuing a hard line on EU trade relations. Still about making the choices.
Hadn't noticed this on first read but just adds to the problem for the UK's foreign policy - very difficult to talk about the rebirth of the transatlantic alliance when we're blanking the EU. The EU and US have tensions, but at least accept each other...
Read 4 tweets

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