Thread by @ChicoCifrado

1/ Today I'm going to rant about #BTC. Trying to explain to myself and others how I see things are going to end.

I'm hearing news after news about deep pockets buying #BTC to "store value" while the dollar collapses. That's nice to see, that's mainstream insitutuion adoption.

2/ Morgan Stanley saying #BTC is going to replace the dollar as a medium of exchange. Hilarious. This whole bullrun brings euphoria and as you can see, some people have no fucking clue about how it works.

The price is going up, but it can't replace the dollar. It's not the same.

3/ To replace the dollar it should scale first and #BTC doesn't. The mempool is almost over 200MB, people are paying over $25 on average, being $10 the "small" fee.

Pay anything below that and your transaction is not going to be confirmed in days.

4/ People are scared of losing their jobs, losing their money, losing their life essentially. That's why Nigeria, Venezuela, China or even EEUU consider #BTC as a better form of money, because it is.

I think it could replace gold's market cap because it's a digital asset.

5/ In the end, people will lose money because their fiat currency is going down in purchasing value terms.

But #BTC won't be different, you're going to pay the price of collective fomo.

So first you will lose dollars and then lose your #BTC.

6/ Everyone seem to ignore the slowliness of the #BTC network and the high fees because the price keeps going up. Until it stops going up. And it will. Sooner than you think.

Only if you can afford to pay a $100 fee (maybe more) you will be able to get out in time.

7/ If the dollar collapses and somehow #BTC becomes a global currency reserve, your problem will become worse. The price can go up temporarily so countries and their people think they're doing fine. Until they try to use it.

#BTC is essentially a musical chairs game.

8/ I don't see how the Bitcoin trademark can achieve a good reputation when it collapses. If big institutions like Tesla buy #BTC, that's only a speculative attitude. Just like miners mine for profit until it's no longer profitable.

People will hold #BTC no matter what happens.

9/ And I get it. Bitcoin is resilient and it grows in waves. The pandemic made this "crypto" movement bigger and faster.

We have the media attention with things like Dogecoin, GME... Kids are literally buying #BTC and talking about it. Do you think they know what they're doing?

10/ I didn't know what bitcoin was in 2014. Even in 2018 after the split, the confusión was everywhere. Today is no different.
I see the fomo, I see the headlines, and I see market manipulation (I'm looking at you, @elonmusk).

This is not going to end well.

Good luck.