1. Survey update: To all who contributed to my research study on extremism in the GOP I wanted to updated you on where I'm at. Right now, I'm haggling over some options trying to max the # of questions I can include w the # of what are called "demographics" bc I really need both
2. to make best use of the data for analysis. Goal is most questions w most demos w best methodology possible given the MASSIVE budget constraint we have. Again, bc I only need data collection & sample & can guerillo some of the other aspects, we're gonna pull this sucker off on
3. about 1/3 of the normal budget. Which is CRAZY! And I'll never do it again. Until the next time I decide to do it again. Right now, my general design idea is a GA statewide with an oversample of respondents from MTG's district w enbough completes to be able to run cross tabs.
4. Anytime you see someone "interpreting" crosstab data from a survey of n=500 or 600 completes they should not be doing that bc the margins of error (as well as other issues are very high at low n), no matter who this person is & how fancy their job title is. This means NO TALK
5. about anything other than what we call topline data Candidate A 47% to Candidate B's 53% w MOE +-3.5%. If someone since "Democrats," or "women," or "Independents" or "college edu" they're talking crosstabs & if the survey MOE is 3.5% the crosstab MOE is about double (roughly)
6. You might be thinking, "but Dr. B I see doing this every day on TV & everywhere when n is not above say, 700. Are you saying they are violating basic good statistical practices & telling me shit that may, or may, be actually accurate?" Yes. Yes, that's exactly what I'm telling
7. you. So n is really, really imp IF you care about crosstabs & science (hopefully at least some of you really appreciate the deep, deep irony here). So I am trying to max n, given # of questions, w the best methods I get get "live calls vs online poll." Lost 4 days to being
8. bedridden last week, which delayed me on all fronts. Should have fielding finalized in the coming week & will be able to show y'all the questionnaire. What I have envisioned in my brain thingy is cool if I can pull it off at Walmart prices. Goal again, measure "extremism."

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More from @RachelBitecofer

21 Feb
1. In my teeny-tiny corner of poli sci, Mayhew's The Electoral College is the functional equal to The Good Book bc it teaches you the 1 truth: candidates are single-minded seekers of election/reelection & everything they say/do/think serves that goal before & above all others.
2. This was The Truth before the Trump Era. Now we'll call it The Indisputable Truth bc all of the stop gaps we used to believe that cut this off, or served as buffers or limits to The Truth prior to the last 5 yrs (at least on the Right) have failed. Now you can be exhaustably
3. corrupt & demean everything about God & country and enjoy a 90% approval rate if you secure electoral safety. You can allow senators to flee their states during disasters & be reelectable. When Mayhew wrote the E.C. getting reelected was really, really, really imp to members-
Read 13 tweets
20 Feb
I've been assuming the lack of a pr campaign by @JoeBiden Admin to push people to get the vaccine is based on the supply prob but that's still a bad policy: gov should be pushing a MASSIVE marketing campaign on this
The rejection rates in the first access groups are so high that I'd be interested in hearing if @VinGuptaMD has heard any worries that rejection rates among the lower levels might be too high???
Let me add to this. Yes, we do have a massive shortage problem right now. But that will change quickly, and I fear instead we will have a massive rejection rate problem. KIM: no time for error to beat the variants. Again, 1st access groups displaying high rejection rates & I bet
Read 5 tweets
20 Feb
1. I'm a HUGE fan of @AVindman- I spent months w a printed color photo of him taped to my desk as I shed my old professional identity to be able to fight on behalf of this country in the way I'm best positioned to serve it.

I see his argu.

But Trump would've tanked both, yes?
2. As w all situational ethics, which at its heart comes down to a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation, there is no "good" option. So no matter what you do you're gonna get judged harshly. In the future where you chose A, there will be a good argument that you
3. you screwed up & should have chosen B and vice versa. This is why I rarely impose harsh judgements on people stuck in A vs. B situational ethics choices: there is no such thing as a right choice. What is no longer a "situation" is the status of Alexander Vindman & his brother
Read 4 tweets
16 Feb
1. Correct- it is easy to take over local/county committees bc barely anyone participates in them & the people who do are the ones who are passionate (more ideological).

In the case of Trumpism they actually understood (bc of Manafort) that if they kept local control of the
2. of the Rep Party, they'd always control the national party and all they had to do was put icing on cakes bc the cake had been baked with the Tea Party takeover. The GOP actually murdered itself, via its moves to consolidate power over the Ds. All of the things it built to
3. help them win more elections (right-wing media, partisan gerrymanders, outlandish campaign rhetoric) worked GREAT and then it turned into Frankenstein and ate them all up. The @lincolnproject was literally trying to kill the monster they helped create so its a damn shame they
Read 4 tweets
14 Feb
1. Yes, as @danielsgoldman is talking about now on @MSNBC is playing a big part. Rep Senator reluctance to go after Trump is MUCH MORE now than mere political reluctance. And frankly Trump made these threats openly known. Yet, he had his "lists" for primaries. But there is much
2. more going on here, that I'll touch on in the article which will also include the survey results ( there is STILL TIME to get involved w the survey. It is on extremism in the GOP- focused on MTW, GA-14 but also GOP extremism broadly. Ultimately, I waited to field it until
3. after the impeachment trial bc the survey wasn't really meant to test that (trust me, the big org will cover it!) and bc I was afraid it would impact what we are trying to measure. So now its time to get this puppy in the field. UNLESS, y'all care to asses some of this stuff
Read 9 tweets
14 Feb
1. This is the prob w the media system covering impeachment as if its a damn murder trial. The senators are called jurors, but they're NOT. They have no enforced obligation to "judge" on evidence- they're free to "judge" on party loyalty. In both cases, they did that perfectly!
2.And I hope to show this in the upcoming poll y'all crowdfunded- many Republicans DID NOT WATCH THE IMPEACHMENT TRIAL.

Why? Bc they are working hard to maintain their Conway" "alt fact" version of America so, just like the 1st one, they are not going to watch
3. the actual trial. If they did they'd be forced to confront the "inconvenient truth of Trump's Big Lie, their Fox News & talk radio heroes Big Lies, their fav GOP elected ranging from Ted Cruz to Marco Rubio's Big Lies. They are NOT going to do this. There are a few centrist Rs
Read 8 tweets

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