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Adam Ozimek Profile picture
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22 Feb, 4 tweets, 2 min read
I am very excited to see @tylercowen to say this bc I agree, I don’t see it taken seriously enough, and I lot of my research supports this. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… Image
The case that population growth is a first order driver of dynamism has grown a lot in the last decade. A lot of that is in my report with EIG on Heartland Visas eig.org/wp-content/upl…
There is also growing evidence that an aging population, which can result from a lack of population growth, is bad for productivity as well. ma.moodys.com/rs/961-KCJ-308…
The recent population growth -> dynamism lit starts with @IanHathaway and Litan showing strong cross sectional relationship at the metro level. It’s now been shown to hold up with several independent instrument variables.

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Adam Ozimek Profile picture
18 Feb
Some quick math in response to this @ojblanchard1 piece.....

piie.com/blogs/realtime…
He writes: "In January 2020, the unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, the lowest since 1953; it can reasonably be taken as being close to the natural rate. Put another way, output was probably very close to potential."
Except that the unemployment rate is a poor measure of slack. The evidence we have accumulated post Great Recession makes it extremely clear that participation matters, and many who were considered irrelevant, like disabled and "don't want a job" are actually relevant slack.
Read 8 tweets
Adam Ozimek Profile picture
5 Feb
The good news is that the economic recovery is not quite sliding into reverse, the bad news is that it has largely stalled for the moment.
Given the lack of widespread vaccinations at this point, a slowdown in economic recovery was likely unavoidable as part of getting the virus under control.
The crisis remains a services recession. While employment goods producing sectors are down 4%, they are down 7% in private-services. Within services, leisure and hospitality remains down a drastic 23%.
Read 12 tweets
Adam Ozimek Profile picture
26 Jan
Effect of immigrants on relative wages are very modest. Effect of high skilled immigrants on productivity are massive. From a welfare of natives view, u would focus on more high skilled immigrants as the #1 priority. Less low skilled is extremely minor issue.
Those who feign a hard headed economic and native welfare only view of things suspiciously prioritize decreasing low skilled.
Here, for example, is a good quote from Gordon Hanson: Image
Read 5 tweets
Adam Ozimek Profile picture
9 Jan
Only 22% of adults use Twitter. In contrast almost every house has a TV. The idea that there is some monopoly over access to the public here is really not compelling. Maybe you spend too much time on Twitter if you think that.
“Twitter isn’t really life” but kicking some politicians off of it is the end of democracy
The other thing is banning his account does not prevent his message from being heard here. Trump doesn’t get a TV show on CBS, but CBS news broadcasts his newsworthy appearances and videos and statements.
Read 4 tweets
Adam Ozimek Profile picture
8 Jan
Quick thread on the why and how of fiscal stimulus given the state of the economy. First it's important to understand the size of the damage. We have *still* lost more jobs than the worst of the Great Recession. That's a remarkable level of job loss (chart from @crampell)...
Now it's true, there are a lot of ways that this recession is a lot less damaging than the Great Recession. The housing market is fine, household and business balance sheets have been to a significant extent bailed out by massive amounts of relief. That is all very good..
We also have a lot of pent us savings, which should be released when the pandemic is over. A lot of the job loss is also temporary, a business is still there, there customers will be back, but they are at 30% staff bc of the pandemic. That all suggests fast bounceback...
Read 14 tweets
Adam Ozimek Profile picture
8 Jan
140,000 jobs lost in December as the third wave of the virus causes the economy to slip into reverse
The unemployment rate is unchanged at 6.7%, but don't let that fool you. Labor force participation is down 1.8% from February. Those people are also in reality unemployed as well just not being counted.
Face to face services are taking most of the damage as usual. Leisure and hospitality declined by half a million, and is down 23.2% from February. That's just massive. Professional & business svcs for comparison is down 3.7%
Read 5 tweets

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