"The demography of sub-Saharan Africa is one of the megatrends of the 21st century. Africa is the only world region projected to have strong population growth for the rest of the century. "
"According to Pew Research, between 2020 and 2100, Africa’s population is expected to increase from 1.3 billion to 4.3 billion. " by @pewglobal
"These gains will come mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, which, even allowing for demographic transition, is expected to more than triple in population by 2100."
"The Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Ethiopia and Angola, along with one non-African country (Pakistan) are all major centers of population growth. But Nigeria is by far the most dramatic."
by @pewglobal
"On current trends, Nigeria will surpass the U.S. as the third-largest country in the world in 2047.

"Nigeria is expected to have 864 million births between 2020 and 2100, the most of any African country. The number of births in Nigeria is projected to exceed those in China by 2070."
"Currently, total fertility in Nigeria is running at 5 live birth per woman, compared to the global average of 2.5. "
"Given limited medical facilities and prevalent poverty, Nigeria’s women are in the frontline of a spectacular drama.

Today 20% of all global maternal deaths happen in Nigeria. "
"600 000 Nigerian women died in childbirth between 2005 and 2015 and there were no less than 900 000 maternal near-miss cases."
"According to WHO a Nigerian woman has a 1 in 22 lifetime risk of dying during pregnancy, childbirth or postpartum/post-abortion; whereas in the most developed countries, the lifetime risk is 1 in 4900."
"“Lagos, the federal capital until government functions shifted to Abuja in 1991, is arguably Africa’s most vibrant, creative and dynamic city. "
"It is a centre not only of commerce and the country’s burgeoning high-tech industry but also of its creative industries, including music, fashion and the Nollywood film industry. ""
"Like India’s Mumbai, that makes it a city of dreams. Each day, thousands of people arrive from poorer parts of the country attracted by an economy bigger than that of Ethiopia, a country of 110m people."
"The city’s expansion has been almost entirely unplanned. In 1960, at Nigeria’s independence, Lagos had just 200,000 people. More than half a century later it has grown 100-fold to around 20m making it one of the top ten most populous cities in the world. "
"By 2040, that could hit 30m."
Nigerian tax revenues are dependent on the oil industry

by @FT
Needless to say, none of this is a recipe for economic success. The World Bank recently produced this comparison of Nigeria and Indonesia’s economic development over the last half century.
by @WorldBank
"In 1970 Nigeria’s gdp per capita was twice that of Indonesia. Today that economic balance is flipped. Indonesia is now a rapidly growing middle-income country. Nigeria is not."
"Nigeria has fallen behind not just relative to Asian competition. It also lags its African competitors too. Ethiopia, in particular, has demonstrated how high investment can drive growth."
"As Reuters reports, currently Nigeria produces huge quantities of crude oil but has no adequate refinery capacity. It has to import petrol and suffers regular fuel shortages. There is a promise that a $12bn refinery will soon open that should produce fuel by 2022."
"That Nigeria's economy functions at all is credit to the endless capacity for improvisation displayed by its population. "
"It is testament to that that Nigeria has amongst highest GDP per GW of grid power in world! In other words the system is grotesquely inefficient, but Nigerians make the most out of whatever stable on-grid electricity supply they can get."
"Given the huge population growth, unemployment is a chronic problem"
"But for all the dynamism and drive, for all the success that many achieve, some 94m people in Nigeria live on less than $1.90 a day, more than in any other country in the world.

By 2030 a quarter of all very poor people on the planet will be Nigerian, predicts"

The deisre of Niegerians to migrate internationally has grown in recent years

The emmigrants are young anhd well educated and urban people
by @WorldBank
"Many migrants cannot find a legal route and resort to paying extortionate fees to people smugglers."
Nigerian migrants pay up to US$ 10,000 to migrate to Europe through irregular means
Major price indexes,

Energy Metals and Agriculture rise
Nominal prices, percent changes, January over December

All commodities
by @WorldBank

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More from @WholePicture_

21 Feb
Slow Recovery
The projected recovery of the Euro Area is appallingly slow. Whilst the US is now looking forward to a rapid rebound in 2021, the Euro Area is not expected to recover to 2019 levels of output until the end of 2022.
In 2025 Europe will still be far below the pre-corona trend.
adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-ne… Image
The ECB’s mandate specifies price stability as its objective. It is supposed to keep inflation below 2 percent. Down to the 1990s that would have been a demanding task.
Read 6 tweets
21 Feb
S&P Market-Cap Concentration
Today, the top five—Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla and Facebook—make up 21% of the index’s total market capitalization
18% of market value commanded by the five biggest in 2000, when Microsoft, Cisco, General Electric, Intel and Exxon Mobil were on top Image
"Given the lack of spending opportunities brought on by pandemic lockdowns, the savings rate among Americans has surged to 13.7% of annual disposable income, compared to just 4.5% in March 2000. "
Read 8 tweets
21 Feb
To make the right predictions, he needs a bird's eye view of the world's financial and geopolitical happenings.

"We are like ants preoccupied with our jobs of carrying crumbs in our minuscule lifetimes instead of having a broader perspective of the big-picture patterns and cycles"
Henry Kissinger, politician, diplomat, and geopolitical consultant who served as Secretary of State and national security advisor under Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford.
Read 4 tweets
20 Feb
"Whether the Great Depression of 1929, the Japanese bubble bursting in 1988, the dot-com crash of 2000, or the Great Recession of 2008 – all were showing symptoms of a debt crisis long before asset prices plummeted."
"Short-term debt cycles typically run around 12 years in length on average, with a boom-and-bust pattern of affluence and overspending, followed by austerity and bruised consumers sitting on their cash."
"Long-term debt cycles run far longer, typically around 75 years, or could run the full length of a country’s rise to greatness through to its inevitable decline."
Read 33 tweets
20 Feb
"Ray Dalio says investors are staring down a period of weak returns as low rates inflate asset bubbles — and warns we’re in the ‘problem’ part of the current cycle"
"He said low interest rates are fueling a bubble that will eventually burst.
Major Wall Street banks are bullish on the direction of equity markets, however."
"When you buy things, that means it bids up the price, but it lowers the future expected returns,"
Read 5 tweets
20 Feb
"Moelis, whose firm advises on mergers, restructurings and capital raising, said corporations’ mounting leverage could become a concern if the economy doesn’t bounce back enough to compensate for the additional cash flows companies will need to cover debt. "
"While he doesn’t see a system-wide concern, he warned there could be issues under the surface that only come to light if the market deteriorates."
"Moelis said his firm’s lack of debt gives it flexibility that larger banking rivals don’t have."
Read 5 tweets

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