1/n Behind the scenes @independantsage on Friday was incredibly exciting & fun. There were Professors & Dr’s, from Maths to virology & epidemiology, experts of repute in their respective fields, being invited to ask a question was an opportunity I wanted to grab, because at
2/ the end of the day, if no one challenges the calculated acceptable deaths & life changing debilitating illness of Mums, Dads & Children, it will continue interminably & CV19 will at some point become the nemesis it constantly strives to become. Pinocchio, it’s nurturer, gives
3/ it as much chance as possible to mutate into something really nasty, not withstanding it’s appalling consequences in terms of death, but also it’s catastrophic effect on the major organs, Kidneys, Liver, Brain & Pulmonary System. This virus is nothing like flu, it’s a complete
4/ bastard in comparison. What amazes me is that they all agree, there’s a complete consensus amongst them. Each of them @Sir_David_King, @SusanMichie, @ReicherStephen, @zubhaque, @chrischirp, @gabrielScally, @globalhlthtwit, Professor Karl Friston, @kamleshkhunti,
5/ Professor Martin McKee, @DrTollullah, Professor Deenan Pillay, @kit_yates_maths, sincerely believe that we have to eliminate CV19 by getting cases down to really low levels (100 per 100,000 per week) & then use Find Test Trace Isolate & Support (FTTIS) to subdue its
6/ transmission & spread. It’s not just the members of Independent Sage who believe that this strategy is the best way to get control of CV19, many others , in fact the majority of scientists I’ve read agree that ending lockdown before cases are low is just plain stupid.
7/ They have looked at the science, considered the facts & that’s their conclusion & it’s crystal clear that they are correct. One of the questions I submitted was regarding mutations & in particular the E484K variant which has worryingly become an insidious part of b117 (Kent)
8/ because of it’s known potential for escape (avoid antibodies thus neutralising the effect of the immune system), & significantly reducing the efficacy of vaccines in mild & asymptomatic cases. No one knows yet, what the effect will be on hospitalisations which is the key
9/ indicator for fatality rates or put another way our mates, families or friends & loved ones. Think about that for a second, nobody knows! These easily avoidable deaths, had we but followed the scientific advice, mustn’t be repeated for a fourth time & anything other than a
10/ strategy of elimination seriously risks that outcome or possibly much worse, as a consequence of encouraging escape simply due to the mathematical likelihood of a variant with escape characteristics which already exist (501YV2 South Africa). Yes vaccines can be adapted within
11/ a few months possibly, but manufacture, distribution & vaccinations can’t, that process will take a minimum of a year.
The conclusion you have to draw & certainty the conclusion that each of these eminent scientists have reached, independently of each other upon
12/ consideration of the scientific evidence, is that elimination is the only socially moral, economically sustainable & health conscious way, to deal with CV19 because with squillions of cases around the world it’s constantly striving to “escape” which is why the scientists are
13/ worried about 501Y.V2 (SA) & in particular it’s increased (compared to SARS-COV-19) affect on younger people. Talking of which did you know that 7% of kids according to Doctors oozing with ability like @Dr2NisreenAlwan, suffer from Long Covid & were you aware that 33%,
14/ one third of patients hospitalised with Cv19 are readmitted within 5 months & sadly 10% die. These deaths aren’t recognised as CV19 deaths in the figures, you need to die within 28 days of a positive test for that.
Back to no one knows. Considering everything in totality it
15/ is impossible for anyone to be absolutely certain about the long term consequences of CV19. We do however know quite a bit now.
1. It sucks & kills approximately 0.66%
2. 7% of infected people get Long Covid
3. It’s mutating & will probably escape
4. 76% have at least 1 symptom 6 mths after infection & 50% presented with abnormal chest imaging. (The Lancet thelancet.com/journals/lance…

What we’re certain of is that we are uncertain. Therefore any strategy which fails to attempt to achieve elimination must, by definition,
17/ be a gamble based on insufficient evidence.
The risks are known & include:
1. CV19 mutates & becomes deadlier.
2. Cases & illnesses rise overwhelming health systems.
3. CV19 variants transmission rates increase again as with b117.
4. Lockdown becomes necessary again.
18/ 5. Long Covid & the long term consequences to health worsen.

The “last lockdown “ is wishful thinking. The definition of insanity says Einstein is “doing the same thing over & over again, but expecting different results.”
We’re in Groundhog Day currently & whilst vaccines
19/ will change the dynamic, that is only true if they remain effective. The risk that we run is that by allowing so many cases CV19 will achieve escape & at that point, we will have to lockdown hard & get cases down to 100 per 100,000 per week (10 cases per day) & use
20/ FTTIS (Find, Test, Trace, Isolate,Support), to manage transmission levels or alternatively accept 660,000 deaths, 9 million hospitalised, with approximately 5% therefore 450,000 going into Intensive Care Units & roughly speaking 900,000 people with Long Covid.
Should we
21/ blithely accept the fact that a vast number of Mums, Dads & Children will be debilitated by failing kidneys, ruined lungs, exhaustion, strokes, heart problems & the other appalling consequences of Covid?
No we shouldn’t, it is not conscionable considering the irrefutable
22/ (Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, China etc) evidence that lockdown to reduce cases followed by FTTIS will stop deaths, illnesses & therefore the consequences of this bitch of a virus. We have all seen the difference between how they are living, no masks, life like
23/ normal, no deaths, just pubs & restaurants. Tell me that’s not better & I’ll think you’re an idiot.
It beggars belief that elimination is not the political reality. It is however the scientific advice & if we were following the science we would undoubtedly be in a better
24/ place. economically & in terms of diminishing our freedoms yet further.
I urge everyone to campaign for elimination & to recognise that it’s the risk free, most beneficial strategy according to the science.
The latest Independent SAGE update:

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