Thread by @HZiauddeen

So here're my thoughts on the govt's COVID-19 Response Spring 2021 plan.

This is a cynical bastard's take on the plan. For actual scientific information, please follow @dgurdasani1 @trishgreenhalgh @chrischirp @Dr2NisreenAlwan

Here goes:
(1/12)

- This is not a plan for controlling the pandemic.
- This is a plan for opening up the country, presumably to save the economy, hoping to get life back to normal, placating the COVID sceptics in your party.
(2/12)

- According to the plan, R will rise, cases will go up and there will be more deaths (the most conservative estimate is a further 30,000 deaths over the next 4 months). This is baked in.
(3/12)

- Rises in cases will be acceptable as long as NHS capacity is not overwhelmed i.e. it's ok if it is at breaking point as long as it does not break.
- All schools will reopen on the 8th of March with little in the way of mitigatory measures: R will rise significantly.
(4/12)

- The packaging is slicker, the language sounds more 'sciency' but the plan is very similar to last year. Most striking is the repeated msging around being guided by the data when the entire plan is timetabled by date till June. Has the feel of 'a suitable form of words'.
(5/12)

- There is the very clever use of the 'no earlier than X date' for each of the planned steps. Makes it sound cautious when actually each step represents a massive risk of increased transmission and is timetabled 5 weeks from the previous one.
(6/12)

- There are 4 tests to be met before moving to the next step:
1. Are we continuing to role out vaccines?
2. Are vaccines working well enough to reduce hospitalisations and deaths?
3. Is the NHS overwhelmed?
4. Any new variants that mean we should rethink plans? (7/12)

These tests have no specified cut-offs e.g. how well are we rolling out vaccines? What is unsustainable burden on the NHS? It's a bit like the government marking it's own test papers.
(8/12)

Further, the tests have no relation to cases. Even with skyrocketing cases you can pass all 4 tests because at least 3 and 4 will take a while to go red and you can be well into the next step before the consequences of the previous one start to show up.
(9/12)

- Another clever bit. The document has sections on all the key areas of concern: schools, test-trace-isolate, support for isolation, border controls. So in response to any concerns raised about these, the govt can always say, our plan covers that.
(10/12)

- That makes the plan great for press conferences and interviews. However if you look under the section headings, there's little meaningful content or change from what's already happening. The plan covers all these key areas but doesn't have much of a plan for them.
(11/12)

E.g. a year in, the plan talks about setting up a test-trace-isolate system for the future, including getting more private providers for tests.
-And here's the big kicker, the plan is based on continuing to live with COVID, not getting on top of it.

We're screwed.
END
(12/12)