Okay, quick lesson so you'll understand the economy better than politicians.
The velocity of money is the rate at which each dollar travels through the economy, captured in GDP.
A high velocity economy is what benefits the most people, and is the gold standard.
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2/ In a high velocity economy, every dollar you spend ripples through the economy quickly.
Let's say you go to a restaurant, and buy a sandwich. That $10 (it was a pricey sandwich) goes to the shop, who spends it on at the grocery store, who spends it at a wholesaler, etc..
3/ This is a high velocity transaction. Each dollar you spent had an impact throughout your local economy.
At some point (2000), Western economies got tired of increasing GDP by velocity. Instead, they decided they were going to try to grow it by *credit*
4/ In this case, you buy a house. Sure, each house generates a lot of GDP, but you just made a massive purchase.
It's going to be a cost you have to pay off for 25 years, with no additional activity, just the initial transaction.
It was easier than building communities though
5/ So governments leaned on this housing and debt ponzi for easy growth. In the mid-1990s, when people *remember* the economy booming, each US dollar was circulating 2.2x!
Now? 1.129x. Almost every dollar printed is producing just 10% more activity. It's almost embarrassing.
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A VC once told me to invest in anything that can be used for *legal* money laundering.
Not to make money from the launderers, but because the launderers will hide activity in businesses, boosting the likelihood of legit businesses hopping on.
Heck of an investment thesis.
2/ It turns out the whole gig economy was a great use case.
Renting a room that goes for $100/night in a hotel for $2,000/night on a short-term rental site doesn't set off any red flags, or capital currency controls.
It also isn't subject to laundering regs. 🤣
3/ Also incredible how simple the operations are.
Person A buys a house, and rents it.
Person B gets people to rent from abroad. Don't show up, just pay.
Person A uses the revenue to secure more assets, and expand operations. Brings a new meaning to ghost hotel.
Doug Ford’s a master at playing the opposition and public.
Everyone’s focused on the idiotic things he says, and are now totally ignoring that he just took control of almost all of the land planning in the province.
Boomers: "You can't cancel $50k in student debt. I paid for my degree!"
It also only took you a summer to pay off your degree, and will take students 10+ years now.
This is also what they're doing with housing.
I say this as someone that paid their tuition (multiple times!) by having an after school, and sometimes before school, job.
What's the point of having advanced education, if they're so loaded with debt they can't take risks at new jobs? Student debt is a drag on growth.
I know some Boomer is going to read this and say, "they can do what you did!"
So many points, but I was one of those giftie nerds. I learn in a very short amount of time. Most people can't, and they shouldn't jeopardize a whole degree to reduce debt.
2/ If this sounds Enron-ish, that's because Texas' whole energy system is based on Enron's playbook.
Enron tried to pass a bill that deregulated energy in Texas in 1991, and it was killed by Kevin Bailey (D). Enron then tried to kill Bailey's career as a warning to others...
3/ They eventually bought the whole state Republican party, and by 1999 under a party led by Dubya, they deregulated retail energy and created a joint venture called New Power Company...
... Enron collapsed before it was created. Tragic, really.
Millennials are the only generation where housing affordability is 35% of a dual income household.
People will have to literally partner up for basic shelter. Most don't realize how problematic that is.
It's regression, sold as progress.
2/ It's going to be a lot worse for Gen Z too if governments still rely on expanding credit for housing.
People aren't going to have the luxury of finding a partner they like. They're going to find partners out of necessity, and can't leave unless they're rich.
3/ Overall this is going to be a long-term drag on social satisfaction.
What happens when you have angry people that realize they're in the same boat as everyone else, but they know their lives all suck?