Thread by @tonywilsonIES

Today's jobs figures are ok - PAYE and earnings data is strong; but LFS measures a bit weaker than last month (still better than feared a few months back). Dragged down by v weak December data.
Worrying signs on long-term unempl and insecure work - thread below... 1/

Headlines first - left graph shows total changes since crisis began on LFS measures, with the quarterly change in yellow. Right hand side is HMRC PAYE data.
Some health warnings on LFS, but jobs impact clearly bottoming out. 2/

Young ppl still faring worst (left below), this is new PAYE data which is slightly worse than LFS.
Most recent quarterly LFS by gender shows employment down slightly for men and women (right below), still mainly driven by s/e and part-time work. Full-time employee work rising 3/

These different impacts likely being driven by occ/sector differences in jobs being lost and created.
Sector data out today shows retail and hospitality driving job losses, but manufacturing down 340k (11% - we think mainly food).
But big growth in services jobs (blue bars) 4/

(We looked in more detail at this a few months ago employment-studies.co.uk/resource/impac… and in this report on young people for @YF_Foundation and @blagravetrust: employment-studies.co.uk/resource/unequ…
Employment 'bright spots', often related to pandemic response, are benefiting some more than others... 5/)

The latest redundancy figures show just how bad 2020 was, with 500 thousand more people laid off than in 2019 (left below). Our forecast in September of 650k total for Q3 and Q4 was not far off (employment-studies.co.uk/resource/notic…).
Clear signs that redundancies falling back now (right) 6/

Of more (most) concern in today's figs though are signs of rising long-term unemployment and insecure work. On long-term unempl first, this is now rising for all ages but partic young people. At 200k, is highest for >4 years - and will keep going up 7/

And numbers in involuntary temp or part-time work are also both rising - an early indicator on job quality and security. 1.5 million workers in total, up by 190k on the year. 8/

And there are worrying early signs that those more disadvantaged may be losing out.
Below shows employment 'gaps' for disabled people, ethnic minorities, older workers and young people not in education. In all cases, gaps have stopped narrowing, and for some may be widening 9/

Finally - potential bright spot on job flows today. The LFS data (left) shows improvements in job entry, exits and job-to-job moves, while the PAYE admin data (right) suggests almost back to pre-crisis.
These need to get well ABOVE pre-crisis in recovery, but a good sign 10/

All told, today's figures are ok.
But while I'm not expecting fireworks at Budget , there's enough here to give pause for thought. Worrying signs on job security, long-term unempl and most disadvantaged. Enough to justify going further, as we set out: employment-studies.co.uk/resource/labou…