Today's jobs figures are ok - PAYE and earnings data is strong; but LFS measures a bit weaker than last month (still better than feared a few months back). Dragged down by v weak December data.
Worrying signs on long-term unempl and insecure work - thread below... 1/
Headlines first - left graph shows total changes since crisis began on LFS measures, with the quarterly change in yellow. Right hand side is HMRC PAYE data.
Some health warnings on LFS, but jobs impact clearly bottoming out. 2/
Young ppl still faring worst (left below), this is new PAYE data which is slightly worse than LFS.
Most recent quarterly LFS by gender shows employment down slightly for men and women (right below), still mainly driven by s/e and part-time work. Full-time employee work rising 3/
These different impacts likely being driven by occ/sector differences in jobs being lost and created.
Sector data out today shows retail and hospitality driving job losses, but manufacturing down 340k (11% - we think mainly food).
But big growth in services jobs (blue bars) 4/
(We looked in more detail at this a few months ago… and in this report on young people for @YF_Foundation and @blagravetrust:…
Employment 'bright spots', often related to pandemic response, are benefiting some more than others... 5/)
The latest redundancy figures show just how bad 2020 was, with 500 thousand more people laid off than in 2019 (left below). Our forecast in September of 650k total for Q3 and Q4 was not far off (…).
Clear signs that redundancies falling back now (right) 6/
Of more (most) concern in today's figs though are signs of rising long-term unemployment and insecure work. On long-term unempl first, this is now rising for all ages but partic young people. At 200k, is highest for >4 years - and will keep going up 7/
And numbers in involuntary temp or part-time work are also both rising - an early indicator on job quality and security. 1.5 million workers in total, up by 190k on the year. 8/
And there are worrying early signs that those more disadvantaged may be losing out.
Below shows employment 'gaps' for disabled people, ethnic minorities, older workers and young people not in education. In all cases, gaps have stopped narrowing, and for some may be widening 9/
Finally - potential bright spot on job flows today. The LFS data (left) shows improvements in job entry, exits and job-to-job moves, while the PAYE admin data (right) suggests almost back to pre-crisis.
These need to get well ABOVE pre-crisis in recovery, but a good sign 10/
All told, today's figures are ok.
But while I'm not expecting fireworks at Budget , there's enough here to give pause for thought. Worrying signs on job security, long-term unempl and most disadvantaged. Enough to justify going further, as we set out:…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Tony Wilson

Tony Wilson Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @tonywilsonIES

20 Mar 20
I'm delighted with the govt's plan announced today. Hugely welcome. Well done to everyone - Mins, civil servants, those outside govt - for their work to get to this point. We now need to encourage, support and cajole employers to take these funds up.
Here's a quick thread. 1/
First, the promise of guaranteed pay to cover lay-offs, up to a max of £580/ wk, goes well beyond what I was calling for on Monday - and is in line with what @resfoundation set out in their great report this week, and will likely protect millions of jobs. Well done. 2/
The increase in UC - to more or less the same as SSP - is also a big and positive step, and doing this for 12 months for everyone is welcome too. It'll directly benefit more than 2 million low income household, and many hundreds of thousands of new claimants. 3/
Read 7 tweets
11 Mar 20
#Budget2020 measures on covid-19 are pretty thin gruel for people affected. SSP unchanged at £94/ week. For a full-time worker on minimum wage, this is a loss of income of around three quarters. Big opportunity missed to increase this and compensate business for the cost. (1/3)
At same time we estimate that ~7 million people aren't entitled to SSP - one in five workers. This just highlights how inadequate Universal Credit has become. At £73/ wk, the standard allowance is one fifth of full-time min wage. Today's budget increases it by £1.25. (2/3)
It's welcome that JCP will no longer require people with covid-19 to attend offices face to face to make a claim. But today mainly shows that our social insurance/ security system is increasingly patchy and threadbare. What happens if/ when we get a full-blown recession? (3/3)
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!