Some of this discussion after this article came out yesterday which shows that asymptomatic infection (transmission thereby) will reduce after vaccination reminded me how wed some are to continuing a narrative of fear. Remember how we used to say that "the clinical trials
designed to tell you if asymptomatic infection was reduced because post-vaccination regular asymptomatic screening was not done?" Well, here you have this done among HCWs after vaccination - swabbing just to make sure there is no virus in the nose & 86% of the time (these
are EXPOSED health care workers, they are around others), there was NO virus in that nose. Okay, what about the remaining 14%? Take these two papers please- tweeted details before so please read those. medrxiv.org/content/10.110… medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
These two papers tell us that viral load for those that still have exposure to SARS-CoV-2 4-fold reduced in nose after vaccination because immune system goes into to halt nasal replication after vaccination. Put this with what we know about infectiousness/CT/low VL can't spread
and you have a situation where transmission from a vaccinated person is vanishingly small. We have the data now . Can wear masks after vaccination to maintain social norms until herd immunity but please think about biology after vaccination. At this point, we may want to turn
our minds away from confidence intervals and make decisions on vaccination based on principles of immunology (and what we know about diagnostic tests). Natural conclusion? Asymptomatic screening of teachers (especially PCR) after vaccination in schools not indicated given data
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Here is full Johnson & Johnson dataset provided to FDA. Remember, this is one-dose vaccine and is an adenovirus vector with DNA inside your body will use to code for the full spike protein + receptor binding domain. We had press release data now have more fda.gov/media/146217/d…
ENSEMBLE- Phase 3 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of a single
dose (5x10^10 vp) of Ad26.COV2.S in ~40K participants
for pro-protocol analysis. Results 14 & 28 days after the one-dose (28 days likely best indicator given immunogenicity data that shows Ab titers
keep on going up in phase I/II data). Let’s start with worse outcomes & move backwards. . Deaths: 7 COVID-19 related deaths in placebo group and none in vaccine group so 100% protection against death. 29 hospitalizations in placebo group from COVID-19 and 2 in vaccine group so
UK (rolling out better than any other large country) on efficacy of Pfizer& AZ vaccines on reducing hospitalizations and transmission in real-world. By 4th week, Pfizer & AZ 1st dose reduce risk of hospitalization from Covid-19 by 85% & 94%, respectively ed.ac.uk/news/2021/scot…
okay that's 1 dose. 1 dose. If you blocked death by 94%, we would have 30,000 deaths from COVID-19 this year in the US instead of 500,000. Spectacular efficacy. So, like UK let's do 4 things: 1) 1 dose to all first; 2) 12 weeks between; 3) Approve more vaccines; 4) mix if have to
Also, we have never had time in history while we are rolling out vaccine in the throes of a pandemic. Means that we must do everything in our power to save lives in US - improve vaccine roll-out by these same procedures as UK ed.ac.uk/usher/eave-ii/…
Helpful to understand more about the Sinopharm vaccine & UAE roll-out. 4 vaccines approved in the UAE: Sinopharm, Pfizer-BioNTech, Sputnik V and Oxford-AstraZeneca. As of Feb 20, 2021, UAE has already vaccinated 56% of its population, 2nd highest in world gulfnews.com/special-report…
Sinopharm is an inactivated virus vaccine developed in China (but phase 3 trial elsewhere as cases too low in China). We like to look at the phase I/II trial data first which was published in Lancet. Two-dose with 4 μg vaccine 3-4 weeks apart thelancet.com/journals/lanin…
We are now used to seeing T-cell responses being measured in the safety/immunogenicity phase but not measured in Lancet paper; neutralizing Ab titers went up with time out to measured 42 days. Pain/fever most common AEs. Next -phase 2 results in JAMA jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…
2 camps emerging in "experts" which I find astonishing, directly linked to school debate. One camp (@MartyMakary, I, others) linking lowering cases/hospitalizations in US directly to roll-out of vaccine + natural immunity from infection (20% in US?) ama-assn.org/delivering-car…
The other camp is saying people are "being good" after winter surge and holiday badness of visiting which is why cases/hospitalizations decreasing. Now, the same journalists who feel nervous to say the word "immunity" even with vaccines are also reporting on how harmful
school closures are for children and society. But these two threads are linked -if you can't report on how amazing these vaccines are (and always interview those who say - well, the variants), you will directly generate fear which will keep schools closed until next fall.
When will there be enough evidence that vaccines reduce asymptomatic carriage (e.g. risk of transmission) to be able to change guidelines for vaccinated people not being a risk to unvaccinated? Also, how should vaccinated people be tested (if at all?) given PCR sensitivity issue?
As we discussed before, this Singapore study is the most compelling I've seen that asymptomatic infection less likely to transmit (4 fold) than symptomatic infection: thelancet.com/journals/lance…
And this study from Catalonia, Spain also told us that viral load of index cases is the most predictive factor of spreading the virus to others thelancet.com/journals/lanin…
Simplest way I can think of to fix the vaccine supply shortage is to authorize J&J vaccine tomorrow (instead of waiting for Feb 26 FDA hearing date). Then you will say - oh no, not as effective? And I will say yes, it is for severe disease & variants! abc7news.com/covid-19-san-f…
And you will say, show me the data on J&J vaccine again? And I will say please please watch this short 30 minute video (6 minutes to 36 minutes) - all data here and a rhapsody in blue to T cells
And you will say - honey, I don't have time to watch you prattle on for 33 minutes - show me the key slides? And I will say - I really want you to see ALL the data but okay here