99% of people arriving in country are not going into hotel quarantine. Evidence from Home Office to @CommonsHomeAffs this am. 15,000 people arriving a day. 150 go to hotels - only 1%. Majority can still go straight onto public transport home without being tested on arrival
Govt has no estimate on the number of people who comply fully with self isolation at home (other estimates range from 29% to 67%). And no figures on whether police are actually taking any enforcement action if people aren’t home when they check (they weren’t at all up til Dec) /2
Matters because we know South Africa & Brazil variants still spreading & new strains still emerging in many countries not on the red list.
Remember in 1st wave <1% of cases came to UK from China, 62% from people travelling back from France & Spain /3
Remember in 1st wave <1% of cases came to UK from China, 62% from people travelling back from France & Spain /3
Asked Home Secretary whether she really thought this system with so many people just going home on public transport was robust & why we weren’t doing more testing on arrival (like South Korea) or extending hotel quarantine. Home Sec said the system was “managing risk.” /4
SAGE papers show pre-departure testing isn’t sufficient to stop cases especially if tests done up to 3 days before and that testing on arrival as well would catch additional cases. Given concern about new variants I still do not understand why Govt continues to reject this. /5 
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