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Arieh Kovler Profile picture
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24 Feb, 5 tweets, 3 min read
New data Pfizer vaccine effectiveness from Israel in the @NEJM in most comprehensive study so far of of 600k vaccinated people 7+ days from second dose:

92% against infection (88-95%)
94% against symptomatic Covid (87-98%)
92% against severe disease (75-100%)
No death stat? Well, the 1.2 million people in this study (600k vaccinated, 600k control) isn't enough to give a meaningful effectiveness against death from Covid, because only one of the 600k vaccinated people died 7+ days after the second dose.
These are really excellent numbers, albeit not the eye-popping effectiveness figures published by Israel's Health Ministry this week. One of the authors of the @NJEM study, @RanBalicer, previously suggested that the Health Ministry numbers were flawed.

The @NJEM study spent a lot of time matching every patient in the treatment group with an equivalent unvaccinated person on a 1:1 basis, to try and account for sampling biases.
Full paper is here. nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…

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More from @ariehkovler

Arieh Kovler Profile picture
26 Feb
More evidence on vaccines and coronavirus transmission: Analysis of data from Israel's surveillance testing programme for care home workers suggests that the Pfizer vaccine cuts positive PCR tests by 88% (76%-92%) among 8,300 vaccinated workers compared to 2600 unvaxxed.
The care workers are actively tested, regardless of vaccine status, as part of Israel's programme to reduce care home infections. The analysis was restricted to workers who work in care homes whose residents were vaccinated centrally, to try and control for workplace exposure.
The analysis notes that other factors could be in play, for example care home workers who are unvaccinated might generally be people who behave more in more risky ways.
Read 5 tweets
Arieh Kovler Profile picture
22 Feb
Since we're doing CPAC speakers already, they're also hosting one of the leaders of the Japanese Happy Science cult. Again.
Jay Aeba from the Happiness Realization Party, the political wing of the Happy Science cult, founded the Japanese version of CPAC and

Hope Not Hate @hopenothate wrote about the links between CPAC and the Happy Science cult in 2019 hopenothate.org.uk/2019/11/14/cou…
Read 4 tweets
Arieh Kovler Profile picture
22 Feb
A study by Public Health England finds that the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is 72% effective at preventing ALL coronavirus infection (including asymptomatic) 21 days after first dose, and 86% effective 7 days after second dose.
Also some evidence that people who've recovered from Covid-19 are as protected, or more protected, against coronavirus infection as vaccinated people. All really good news for the vaccines' ability to slash transmission and end the pandemic.
The pre-print in the Lancet is here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
Read 4 tweets
Arieh Kovler Profile picture
21 Feb
We've got to do better in our vaccine messaging than "get a vaccine or you'll DIE, you total moron!"
I see people posting messages like this all the time on social media, and I think it does more harm than good.
There are lots of people out there who just aren't very scared of Covid, and they aren't going to suddenly become scared of it now. Presenting vaccines (accurately) as the path to reopening is probably better.
Read 4 tweets
Arieh Kovler Profile picture
20 Feb
Yet more good news on the Pfizer vaccine, showing even higher effectiveness 14 days after 2nd dose. Effectiveness:

95.8% at preventing infection
98% at preventing symptoms
98.9% at preventing hospitalisations
99.2% at stopping serious disease
98.9% at preventing death
This new data from Israel's Health Ministry, published a few minutes ago, is SO good that I'm actually a little suspicious of it. Could be a function of the short dosing interval giving a few weeks of very high antibodies?
Alternatively, there could be some herd effects starting to happen in mostly-vaccinated populations compared to towns with low numbers of vaccinated people.
Read 5 tweets
Arieh Kovler Profile picture
18 Feb
Pfizer vaccine estimated 89.5% effective at preventing coronavirus INFECTIONS, whether symptomatic or not, according to new pre-print study conducted by Pfizer and Israel's Health Ministry. This would point to a huge cut in transmission.
Other real-world outcomes: the study shows:

94% effectiveness against symptomatic Covid-19
93.5% effectiveness against hospitalisation
94% effectiveness against severe and critical hospitalisation
93% against death
The full paper is in this thread by @Nadav_Eyal. You can just look at the attachments to his tweets, no need to read Hebrew.
Read 4 tweets

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