Thread by @renato_mariotti

THREAD: What should we make of the news that the Manhattan District Attorney's office has Donald Trump's tax returns and related records?

1/ Today, multiple news outlets have reported that the Manhattan DA's office obtained Trump's tax returns and (according to some reports) millions of pages of related documents from Mazars USA, Trump's accounting firm.

2/ This is the culmination of a lengthy legal fight that ultimately went to the Supreme Court.

It's not at all surprising that Mazars quickly complied with the subpoena once it was clear that courts would enforce it. They have no interest in fighting on Trump's behalf.

3/ I investigated and prosecuted tax cases when I was a federal prosecutor, and I currently defend clients who are under investigation, including multiple clients who are facing potential tax charges.

Tax cases are often very complex and time-consuming to put together.

4/ It has been apparent from the filings by the Manhattan DA that they have been investigating Trump's taxes for quite some time.

This now represents a new phase of their investigation, one that will take many months and could take years.

5/ They recently hired a firm (FTI Consulting, which I've hired before myself) to do forensic accounting work to assist their case. They also brought in a veteran white collar prosecutor with a stellar reputation to join their team.

That tells me they are committed to the case.

6/ In other words, they see enough here to expend very significant resources to see this case to its conclusion. FTI is not cheap, and they wouldn't spend that money unless they thought they would see this through.

But it's going to take a lot of time for them to do so.

7/ What FTI is likely going to do is try to reconstruct from all of Trump's records what taxes Trump should have paid and what the underpayment was.

Prosecutors will be focused on proving Trump's state of mind, which can be a challenge in many tax cases.

8/ To prove most tax crimes, prosecutors have to prove something called "willfulness," which involves proving that the defendant knew that he was doing something that violated a known legal duty.

Because the tax laws are arcane, we don't want to punish people who just messed up.

9/ The easy tax cases are where someone hasn't filed tax returns, where they haven't reported vast amounts of money, or where they have clearly lied on their tax returns.

The prosecutors will be looking to find the last one -- whether they can prove Trump lied on his returns.

10/ That doesn't just mean that a statement on the returns was false. Prosecutors would have to prove that he knowingly made the false statement. Often the excuse from defendants is that the defendant just signs what his accountants put in front of him.

11/ That is usually rebutted by prosecutors by testimony from the accountants, who testify regarding the information provided to them by the defendant. If you lie to your accountant, that is a problem for you if you're facing tax charges.

12/ But in the case of Trump, that's complicated because he's not a sole proprietor. He can also point the finger at people working for him.

We don't know the specifics well enough to know for certain the hurdles prosecutors will need to overcome. But this gives you a flavor.

13/ In addition to overcoming potential defenses, prosecutors will use these records to follow up on leads and make their case better.

Every document that mentions a bank account, or a different company that they didn't know about before, will mean another subpoena to issue.

14/ Hopefully this gives you a sense of why I believe this investigation will continue for months to come. In a way, prosecutors are just getting started.

Trump was able to delay for some time, but the delay is over, and it looks like the Manhattan DA will see this through. /end