Ophir Gottlieb Profile picture
Feb 25, 2021 17 tweets 5 min read Read on X
$NVTA Queued up as a GTC limit.

Looking for ~$10, current price $17.

Let's see a puke sell off in the next few weeks. Maybe even a short seller piece that can help. Image
2/n

$GOGO Queued up for a puke.

Unlikely but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Limit GTC for < $3.00
Current price $4.50 Image
3/n

$FSLY

Queued up for a puke.

Limit GTC to buy for ~$5.00
Current price $12 Image
4/n

More fantasy trades set as limits for a market tumble

$LFMD

Limit set to even ($0.00) Image
5/n

$CCL Setting up yet another "market puke" GTC limit, this time for CCL.

I will wait up to a week.

Limit is $1.40 which gives it more than 10x on the calls ($15 call spread). Image
6/n

$CCL Got a fill very, very small.

Now reaching for better.

GTC for $1.20

Tightening up the put strike. Image
7/n

$FTCH

Trade set up seven in a series of "market pukes" limit prices. 

STO 1/20/23 30.0 P
BTO 1/20/23 18.0 P

Limit GTC $7.00+
Current mark to market is $5.06

Would be a 7:5 MaxGain:MaxLoss for a high probability winner.

Stock would have to go below $23 to lose. Image
8/n

Eighth limit price set for a market selloff.

$PINS

Buy a call spread funded by selling a put spread

BTO 1/20/23 70.0 C
STO 1/20/23 110.0 C

STO 1/20/23 45.0 P
BTO 1/20/23 35.0 P

Limit GTC $3.50
Current mark to market $8.00 Image
9/n

$FSLY

Ninth trade in a series of market puke scenarios.

Buy a call spread funded by selling a put spread.

GTC Limit $1.50
Mark to market $3.32 Image
10/n

$LFMD Update to strike prices for market puke trade.

GTC Limit still for even ($0.00) Image
11/n

$JMIA

Eleventh "market puke" limit price set.

Buy a call spread / Sell a put spread

GTC Limit $2.00
Mark to market $5.50 Image
12/n

$PINS

Market puke trade limit #12

GTC Limit $3.00
Mark to market $7.85 Image
13/n

$NVTA

Thirteenth wishful pricing market puke trade.

Limit GTC $2.75
Current Mark to market $3.50 Image
14/n

$NVTA Trade #1 got a fill.
$CCL Trade #6 got a fill.
15/n

$FSLY Trade #9 filled
16/n

$ROKU

13th Wishful thinking (market puke) trade.

Limit GTC $5.00
Current mark to market $18.00 Image
17/n

Offering the $CCL 7.5/12.5/35/50 short ps / long cs at $2.40.

Paid $1.20.

This was one of the puke trades that got a fill.

This is a standing GTC Limit order.

You can see actual trade in the thread above.

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More from @OphirGottlieb

Jun 4
$CRWD

1/ Image
$CRWD

Net new ARR rose to $211.7M from $174.2M in Q1 of last year.

2/
$CRWD

Growth is back; look at new new ARR:

3/ Image
Read 7 tweets
Feb 21
$GLBE

Stock reaction is down due to full year GMV guidance ($4.71B) coming in a bit soft versus consensus ($4.73B) but as we discuss below, that guidance feels quite comfortably conservate and barring an economic collapse, we see GLBE outperforming.

A (short) thread

1/🧵
That $4.71B GMV guidance (at the midpoint) feels quite achievable if not conservative.

The number implies 32.4% YoY growth off of 2023 which saw 45% growth, but we can disentangle that further.

2/
It was uncovered in the analyst Q&A portion of the earnings call that $200M – $300M of new GMV in 2024 will come from a conservate view of the Shopify Markets Pro rollout which started in September of 2023.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Jan 26
We just have to be intellectually honest: the Federal Reserve simply cannot keep up with how fast inflation is falling.

A thread...

1/🧵
In September of 2023, the Fed's median estimate for Core PCE at the end of 2023 was 3.7%.

The Fed revised that last month to 3.2%; that alone is a wild misread.

Core PCE just came in at 2.9% for the full year.

2/
Compound that with the misread after two-months and we have a Fed that simply doesn't understand the framework of the inflation cycle.

Disinflation is accelerating. It just is. Put your biases aside; these are facts and they are not disputed.

3/ Image
Read 6 tweets
Jan 12
Wholesale Inflation Falls Again; #Disinflation Station

A thread

1/
The Producer Price Index (PPI), as opposed to Consumer Price Index (CPI) that we received yesterday, came in below estimates both for headline and core.

In fact, overall PPI MoM has come in negative for two consecutive quarters - that’s not disinflation, that’s deflation.

2/
Core CPI MoM has come in at 0% for the last three months.

Here is a chart of Core PPI:

3/ Image
Read 11 tweets
Mar 23, 2023
$MSFT

/1
$CRWD

/2
$META

/3
Read 4 tweets
Mar 17, 2023
$SPX So tight, so ready to break in one direction or the other.
$QQQ Strength when compared to $SPX, but very tight.
$KRE 😬

/3
Read 10 tweets

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