A while back I argued that economic pessimism might actually be boosting stocks, because low interest rates reflecting expected economic weakness made stocks more attractive 1/ nytimes.com/2020/04/30/opi…
It seems as if today we're seeing economic optimism driving interest rates up and stocks down 2/ cnbc.com/2021/02/25/the…
A note for anyone tempted to say NOW we need to worry about debt, 10-year real rates are still negative, and far below expected economic growth 3/ cnbc.com/quotes/US10YTIP
In fact, I'm struck by the contrast with 2009, when every uptick in rates was trumpeted as a sign of an imminent debt crisis 4/ wsj.com/articles/SB124…

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More from @paulkrugman

26 Feb
One thing that has always struck me is how liberals are accused of elitist disdain for ordinary Americans, yet conservatives get away with blatant contempt. Consider Dan Patrick, Lt. Gov of TX 1/
Last year he called on seniors to die for the sake of a better economy 2/ nbcnews.com/news/us-news/t…
Now he's telling Texans stuck with $15K electric bills that it's their own fault for not reading the fine print 3/ vanityfair.com/news/2021/02/d…
Read 4 tweets
21 Feb
Cancun Man declares that the entire premise of the deregulated Texas energy market was a gigantic mistake 1/
The whole idea was that utilities would take precautions so that they could profit from price spikes during shortages 2/
It was a bad theory on multiple grounds, which I'll write about more. But if even the least likable man in America says that we can't let prices spike, the whole thing becomes complete nonsense 3/
Read 4 tweets
20 Feb
It's too bad that the Republicans who run Texas are now committed to the canard that renewable energy somehow caused the blackout; once you've gone with a Big Lie, there's no going back. Because they really should be reflecting on the failure of a theory 1/
The idea behind Texas energy policy was that a deregulated market didn't require any oversight to protect the system from crisis, because profit-maximizing utilities would build in robust excess capacity to take advantage of possible price spikes 2/
But they didn't, even though the price spike has been incredible 3/ Image
Read 6 tweets
19 Feb
Let me do a brief thread that's both wonky and hand-waving about the numbers, and why I don't believe that we're facing drastic overheating despite a big relief package 1/
First, where are we now (or rather where were we at the end of 2020)? We were about 4.5% below where we would have been if normal growth had continued from 2019 Q4. But I'm in the camp that says that even in late 2019 we were somewhat below capacity 2/
Goldman puts the "output gap" (slightly problematic concept in a pandemic, but OK for this purpose) at ~6% in late 2020. They also predict 7% growth over the course of this year, with the Biden package. 3/
Read 7 tweets
14 Feb
The next time someone tells you that the parties are the same, or worse, that the GOP represents the working class, compare the distributional impact of Trump's main economic policy and Biden's (so far) 1/
Here's the Tax Policy Center estimate for the Trump tax cut (in 2018) 2/ taxpolicycenter.org/publications/d…
And here's TPC on the American Rescue Plan 2/ taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/tpc-fin…
Read 4 tweets
10 Feb
Exactly right. And important to say given the controversy. 1/
Also important to realize that the data suggest that "fuell employment" as conventionally estimated ... isn't 2/
Quick and dirty comparison of CBO "output gaps" with inflation. Suggests that economy can run maybe 1.5% above "full employment" with only 2% inflation, and ... 3/
Read 4 tweets

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