Thread by @Craig_A_Spencer

“The next phase of the pandemic hinges on vaccines, variants, and doubling down on protective measures.”

Read my latest for @Medium and @elemental.

Here’s a short teaser 🧵:

link.medium.com/qwp4uFe6aeb

In the last month, Covid cases in the US have dropped precipitously. Not long ago we saw > 300k cases a day. Now it’s closer to ~70k.

Hospitalizations have plunged as well. 🎉🎉🎉

And after a slow start, vaccination has picked up significantly.

We now administer 1.5 million doses per day, vaccinating more Americans in 8 hours than will be diagnosed with Covid in a week.

Most importantly, targeting vulnerable populations early on is already saving lives👇

The optimism around vaccines has been tempered by reports of variants circulating around the world and across the U.S.

That’s because they possess characteristics that could complicate control measures and prolong the pandemic.

B.1.117 (first identified in the UK) is 30–50% more transmissible (and likely more deadly).

And B.1.351 variant fueled a massive Covid resurgence in South Africa where it was first identified.

Numerous vaccines were less effective at preventing infection in places where B.1.351 was the primary variant.

J&J/Janssen and Novavax showed lower efficacy. And a small trial of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine in S Africa showed it did not protect against mild or moderate Covid

But, the most important finding from the vaccine trials is usually overlooked in the scary headlines: all vaccines prevented hospitalizations and death — even with their decreased efficacy against those variants.

https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1364703838100316162

And both the B.1.117 and B.1.351 variants fueled resurgences in the UK and South Africa respectively - but like the US, cases have precipitously declined in both places in recent weeks.

The takeaway is that the variants are certainly worth watching. But there is no guarantee they will outsmart our vaccines or drive a spike in cases in the U.S.

Here in the US, this rapid decline in Covid cases has unfortunately been countered by a rapid loosening of restrictions in many places across the country, creating the conditions for a resurgence.

Despite their growing use, their proven value in reducing spread, and President Biden’s plea to mask up for 100 days,
politicians are citing the drop in cases to ease mask mandates in small towns and multiple states, most notably North Dakota, Iowa, and Montana.

It’s not just masks. And it’s not only “red states” easing restrictions. Indoor dining and movie theaters are reopening — even though New York City is classified as “extremely high risk” for contracting Covid.

So where does this all leave us???

Well, the optimism of declining cases must be tempered with a hefty dose of reality. Covid cases and hospitalizations are still at the same levels as last summer’s peak. More than two thousand Americans die every day from Covid.

Even with the recent improvement, we are not out of the woods.

And lifting the proven public health measures that helped control the spread could quickly backfire.

The only thing we know for sure is that as case counts slope downward, people get vaccinated at a greater pace, and politicians roll back restrictions, the end of this pandemic is most contingent on us taking the proven steps to protect ourselves, our families, & our communities.

The reality is that we don’t know for certain whether there will be a fourth wave. But we do know how to prevent it.

Read more 👇👇👇 and follow me on @Medium for my weekly Covid-19 update!

link.medium.com/qwp4uFe6aeb