On @realmoney
Feb 26, 2021 06:42 AM EST DOUG KASS
Reward vs. Risk in My Bond Short Has Shifted
* I covered my $TLT short in Thursday's bond market schmeissing
* Look for bank stocks to now pause after the remarkable rally in the space
Nearly every trade and investment I make
Feb 26, 2021 06:42 AM EST DOUG KASS
Reward vs. Risk in My Bond Short Has Shifted
* I covered my $TLT short in Thursday's bond market schmeissing
* Look for bank stocks to now pause after the remarkable rally in the space
Nearly every trade and investment I make
is based on an assessment of reward vs. risk.
The upside opportunity is always weighed against the downside prospect.
This is the core of how I manage money and, especially as it relates to my investments, it is based on the fundamental analysis of a company and/or the
The upside opportunity is always weighed against the downside prospect.
This is the core of how I manage money and, especially as it relates to my investments, it is based on the fundamental analysis of a company and/or the
calculus of intrinsic value.
It provides me with a sense of "margin of safety" -- essential, in my mind, in finding comfort in trades and investments.
So it was Thursday that I covered my longstanding and high-conviction bond short.
The magnitude of the decline and speed
It provides me with a sense of "margin of safety" -- essential, in my mind, in finding comfort in trades and investments.
So it was Thursday that I covered my longstanding and high-conviction bond short.
The magnitude of the decline and speed
of that decline, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) moving down from $170 a share to under $138 a share since August 2020, have measurably changed the upside/downside prospects to the trade, particularly as sentiment has changed from bullish to bearish as
speculators have aggressively added to fixed-income shorts and as the financial media has just woken up to the material change in yields.
Math and anticipation are my investment watchwords, not charts and reaction.
As to the ramifications of a possible reversal lower in the
Math and anticipation are my investment watchwords, not charts and reaction.
As to the ramifications of a possible reversal lower in the
recent rise in bond yields, I suspect rate-sensitive market sectors such as banks could pause, back and fill now.
That said, I have no plan to disturb my large bank investment holdings.
Position: Long $BAC large, $C large, $JPM large, $WFC large
That said, I have no plan to disturb my large bank investment holdings.
Position: Long $BAC large, $C large, $JPM large, $WFC large
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