I'm glad to see a discussion of the culture in economics seminars. A little history (and possibly folklore) on how we got here: Why "We don't clap."
The possible folklore part is that the modern economics seminar format has its roots at @UChi_Economics. At least that's what people there say. They weren't seminars, they were workshops.
The difference is that in a workshop all participants were expected to have read the paper.
It wasn't a presentation, it was a discussion of a paper that everyone had read. Imagine everyone participating in a 90 min discussion, giving the author feedback on their paper and then clapping at the end. Clapping for whom?
I went to my first economics seminars toward the end of undergrad, and a weird equilibrium had already settled in. Many places had already abandoned reading in advance, and most speakers came in with slides to present their papers.
So you had a speaker trying to present, and an audience trying to discuss. There was some enforcement of reading norms: Becker would call out people who asked questions that reflected they hadn't read the paper. The best talks were ones that largely ignored the slide deck.
Over time, that enforcement lagged and eventually quietly disappeared altogether. But there was no proclamation and deliberate redesign to reflect the fact that the audience was basically ignorant of the paper to be presented. But participation norms were not updated accordingly.
The worst seminars now feature Loud Guy who hasn't read the paper trying to engage with the speaker like Becker would because those were the days, both a frustrated speaker and audience, and no clapping at the end.
Reader, I assure you, Loud Guy is no Gary Becker.
It's super-weird to outsiders--usually one person will start clapping at the end, and quickly blush. "Why don't you guys clap?"
"I don't know, we don't clap." Is the usual informed explanation.
I focus on the clapping not because I think everyone deserves a medal and we've all gone soft. It's because there actually *was* a reason not to clap, that reason is gone, but everyone still thinks that this is the way it's *supposed* to be. It's absolutely not.
So I'm glad to see a groundswell of support for examining the culture of economics seminars. Even the ones that are not complete dumpster fires are not well-designed to maximize their objective: to disseminate and improve research.
I don't have a grand plan, I just want to point out that our current system has gone quite far off course from its original design, and there is no appeal to `tradition' to defend it.
I'm very much in favor of deliberate experimentation to come up with a better econ seminar.
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With most outages over, wholesale prices back to normal, and some truly shocking bills coming due, the policy discussion regarding the #TexasBlackout is ramping up. Some thoughts:
"Texas has a deregulated electricity sector. They failed to keep the lights on. Therefore Texas must regulate electricity." We're going to hear this a lot. We hear the opposite argument whenever a regulatory agency is found to be asleep at the switch (ahem, @US_FDA).
This is a convenient diagnosis that results in ideologues taking turns driving us into a ditch. "You screwed up, so it's my turn to drive." There are likely to be specific causes of last week's breakdown that don't necessarily reflect systemic "markets versus regulation" issues.
This is comparing realized hourly load against predicted load based on the weather, time of day, day of week, etc. etc. ERCOT reports this for 8 different weather zones, and many markets break their total system load into separate areas, so about 100 are plotted here.
A couple of standouts: *YIKES* Permian basin!
You can see that wells (that use electricity for their pumps) in the Permian shut in when prices spiked over the weekend.
Some new results that highlight the stress that American households and businesses are currently under: Utility disconnections and fees in IL.
Thread:
This spring the Illinois Commerce Commission requested zip code-level statistics from utilities on a variety of metrics, including disconnections, disconnection notices, fees, and deferred-payment agreements.
I've compiled these numbers through November, 2020 for the two largest utilities, Commonwealth Edison and Ameren. Combined, they serve 4.9M residential and 600k commercial/industrial accounts. So this won't be a Chicago-centered story, it's about the whole state.
A thread on what electricity consumption in the US is foreshadowing for COVID-19's economic impact:
The data are still coming together, but the pictures are sufficiently clear and consistent across multiple sources that it's worth sharing these numbers with the caveat that revisions may change the picture for individual areas substantially. Apologies for hasty formatting.
You can find more background in this thread about the statistics from Europe:
Here is raw electricity consumption in Northern Italy by hour of week. The top curve is the week before any regional quarantines were instituted. The middle curve is last week. The bottom is this week. This is all raw data with no temperature adjustment.
The temperature adjustments are important because of heating and cooling. In this first week of closures there was about a 3% drop in consumption, but it didn't really look like anything in the raw data.
🚨 New* Research Alert: 🚨
My older work on peer effects with a larger message on the limits of randomized control trials when your treatment isn't what you think it is. In the August JEEA (@EEANews)
Thread:
*`new' in econ publication, or geological time.
Suppose you had a theory that there are peer effects in occupational choice--that it's `contagious'--how else to explain why there are so many agricultural workers in Napa Valley, but computer scientists a few short miles away in Silicon Valley?
Suppose a handful of impeccable RCTs are conducted, randomly sending workers to areas with different agricultural intensities--but they always come up with something different.